The U.S. stock market has been one of the greatest engines of wealth creation in human history. From 1926 to 2025, it generated nearly $91 trillion in shareholder wealth. Most stocks are not wealth creators – they are wealth destroyers.
Only 48% of stocks deliver positive returns over their lifetime.
Just 41% outperformed Treasury bills.
Only 27.6% outperformed the market itself.
— Cern Basher (@CernBasher) April 13, 2026
Out of 29,754 stocks studied over the past century, just:
1,082 stocks (3.6%) created 100% of net wealth.
The remaining 96.4% of stocks collectively matched Treasury bills.
The top long-term performers generated annual returns in the range of 12% to 16% – not dramatically higher than the market.
The Market Is Becoming More Concentrated
If this dynamic sounds extreme, it is becoming even more so.
In earlier research covering 1926–2016:
89 companies accounted for half of all wealth creation.
With updated data through 2025:
Just 46 companies now account for half of all wealth.
Even more telling, from 2017 to 2025:
The top 30 companies generated over 60% of all wealth created.
Winner Take Most
Markets are increasingly driven by:
Scale advantages
Technology platforms
Network effects
Possibly artificial intelligence
Rethinking Risk
Traditional finance defines risk as volatility – the ups and downs of stock prices.
The real risk is not volatility. It is missing the outperforming outliers.
Failing to identify at least some winners is big problem.
The majority of wealth creation from 2017–2025, a clear pattern emerges:
Nvidia
Apple
Microsoft
Alphabet
Amazon
Broadcom
Tesla
Meta
Oracle
Palantir
Micron
Netflix
Visa & Mastercard
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
[ ~’top ten’ is ‘wealth’ from ‘information’ (or data processing related products) not from ‘goods’ production or sourcing energy products? That’s a paradigm change for the ‘industrial countries’ (extremely, for ~10yrs now)? What’s the progressive social concepts with that for the 21st century? (thx) ]
Thanks for this. It reminded me that almost nothing or no one beats the S&P 500 over 5-10 years, with the possible exception of specialized tech funds or the broader small to midcap VXF (3,000 stocks). Finding winners, and managing to buy/sell to minimize capital gains taxes and transaction costs makes it even harder, virtually impossible. Most hedge funds underperform the S&P 500, and with the 2% (annual fee) and 20% (of gains) rule, it’s mainly the hedge fund managers who make a lot of money.
Theoretically, someone could make so much money in a couple of good years and then get out before a bear market takes everything down (assuming you’re not going short too, an even greater complication, with unlimited downside), that 10 year overall market ROI would be less, but far more people will lose money trying that. I know; I made 226% in 1999, but never beat the S&P 500 again after that and mostly didn’t try after the 3-year bear market: March 2000-March 2003 (including a retest of the fall 2002 lows about 6 months later).
My 6-year old Nvidea holding is currently up >5,000% but I’ve been pealing off some of the gains every year for the last 3 years, so I’m playing with the House money now.
I’ve heard and seen much worse.
I’m going to retain this article for future reference.
I believe that focusing on high-quality companies is generally a sound long-term strategy. That said, the timing of entry remains an important factor.
At present, the S&P 500 appears to be approaching the upper boundary of a long-term (100-year) trend channel. Valuations across many stocks are elevated, with some arguably stretched beyond historical norms.
The link below is not intended as financial advice or promotion, but rather as an additional perspective worth considering. While the creator tends to have a more bearish outlook, technical analysis can still provide useful insights, especially in less familiar market conditions.
https://youtu.be/YDNI_Ei5SH0?t=1056