TESLA Q1 Was Confusing. Technical and Business Decoding Is Required

Tesla financial and operations numbers like free cash flow and margin were growing. Those were good things.

They beat on earnings and other forecasted metrics.

However, the discussion about higher capital expenditures spooked Wall Street. There was also not a hard core locked in timeline for scaled unsupervised robotaxi.

The growth in FSD and the improvement in FSD is financially impactful. There is the growth in FSD subscriptions from about 330,000 to 500000.
This will surge as the Total Addressable Market for FSD will more than double with FSD authorized in Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and China.

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This will mean continued growth in margin each quarter and surprises of increased car sales.

This is less than going beyond 100,000 unsupervised fully utilized robotaxi but there will be robotaxi growth.

3 thoughts on “TESLA Q1 Was Confusing. Technical and Business Decoding Is Required”

  1. It is sad they wont make a proper next gen mode 3 or y. But,… Musk figured/thinks the AI race is the most important thing right now and for future – So he went all in.

  2. It’s not that confusing:
    Tesla shipped 358,023 vehicles against a production total of 408,386, and their (already not big) forecast was to sell around 370,000
    Energy storage deployment continued to decline too: coming in at 8.8 gigawatt hours, down from the 14.2 GWh in the prior quarter and the 10.4 GWh in 2025.

    Despite all the fanfare about FSD and robots, the core business is down, and even FSD numbers by themselves hide the fact that TESLA cut the subscription pricing of FSD (Supervised) to $49 per month from $99 per month for the enhanced Autopilot package
    owners, temporarily boosting FSD sales (temporarily because EAP has been discontinued)

    • Battery storage is down? I am surprised to hear that with the growth of battery storage systems. Are they maybe pointing to the wrong market? Consumer rather than enterprise?

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