Based upon oil flows Hormuz were 15-20% open at 3 to 4 mbpd last month (May) but yesterday 17 mbpd. This means Hormuz was 85% open. 17 mbpd is 85% of 20 mbpd. It was 20% open with complete opposition from Iran. And now it is 85% open. The ships know they are getting through. Until ships are hit and stopped why would they stop?
What actions are the US navy doing to keep it open and what is Iran doing in the last 24 hours to threaten to close. If Iran can’t carry out their threat to reclose the Strait then the US will have opened the Strait without having to give Iran anything. Nothing signed yet. It would be Iran proving they have no power.
Energy secretary Wright says 67 ships went through yesterday. There is some reports that the number of ships going through in the last hour has stopped or declined. But those sources talked about 21 ships the other day. If the ships passing turn off transponders but still go through then the oil and the traffic is not stopped. There will be issues around the data of ships with and without transponders.
Oil Flow and Traffic Context
Normal pre-crisis flow through the Strait of Hormuz is roughly 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil (about 20% of global seaborne oil trade). Last month (peak disruption period): ~4 mbpd (~20% of normal) amid full Iranian opposition, threats, and effective restrictions.
June 20 (Saturday): U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported 55 merchant ships transited, carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil in 24 hours. This equates to roughly ~85% of normal oilflow capacity.
This is a sharp recovery from the lows but still below the prewar average of ~130 vessels/day.
Why Ships Keep Going
Ships (and insurers/operators) respond to actual risk and successful transits, not just announcements. With 55 vessels moving on Saturday—including significant oil cargoes—captains see empirical evidence that passage is possible. Until there are repeated, effective kinetic hits (drones, missiles, or small-boat attacks that damage/disable vessels and create visible losses), commercial traffic has strong incentives to continue.
Blanket closures or mines would have caused near-total stoppage. The current pattern shows Irans deterrence is incomplete.
US Navy Actions to Keep It Open
The US is maintaining de facto control and freedom of navigation through presence and posture rather than full convoy escorts for every ship.
Naval and air presence. Warships, surveillance assets, and air support in and near the strait. CENTCOM has publicly emphasized operations to support freedom of navigation and a designated safe route.
Defensive interdiction. Recent weeks saw US forces down Iranian one-way attack drones aimed at commercial ships. They have also conducted self-defense strikes on Iranian military sites (ground control, surveillance) tied to threats against shipping.
No confirmed reports (as of early Sunday) of new mine-laying, successful attacks on transiting ships, or other immediate physical actions in the last 24 hours. It remains largely declarative/threat-based for now.
What happens to the deal if the oil keeps flowing despite the Iranian threats?
If Iran fails to show they can back up their threats.
The movement patterns show there are no mines as of now.
Gasbuddy Crowdsourced Prices
This tracks a day or two ahead of AAA nationwide pricing at $3.93.
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I hope this is true. There’s too much conflicting information to tell, and both the president and facts-on-the-ground are changing too fast to know what’s going to happen.
One day Trump says we’re weeks from running out of global reserves (U.S. too) confirmed by Exxon, and another day he says the U.S. will take over the gulf and charge 20% of oil revenues to pay for it. How the U.S. will do that is left undetermined.
The best thing for the world would be regime change in Iran, but the U.S. is still fighting with mostly 20th century military tech, against drones, missiles and mines of the 21 century. Our bases are mostly blown up, our “allies” in the gulf don’t trust us to protect them anymore, and some estimates say we will have spent a trillion dollars over the next decade repairing our bases, replacing our munitions and caring for lifelong injuries to our soldiers. If the global reserves run out due to renewed fighting, in weeks or months if there’s imperfect Iranian blockage, Treasuries will continue to be sold off to pay for expensive oil, even gold will continue to be sold off – already crashing the gold market that was soaring previously. See: Turkey Just Sold Its Gold — Here’s Why That Should Scare You – https://youtu.be/pncMEKuR-g8
Are you a bot? Bases are completely destroyed and will cost a trillion dollars to repair?
Lots of people were hopeful that Middle East could be stabilized and support for proxies would end.
But Iran found a weak point and leveraged it – oil with its production&logistics.
Us is unable to protect all ships and refineries.
The best way would be if they stopped support for proxies and gave up some ambitions. The money they will get should be used for their own country development and the Iranians should focus on their country, improving it. There is a lot of mistrust from al the sides, either side dont trust the other.