The Case that SpaceX Shares are Halfprice Inside of Echostar

The Echostar spectrum continues to go fine adding about $130 million six times per day.

SPCX becomes marginable on July 13th. Does that become a catalyst date for SATS as people unwind their short position (to short SPCX directly if they are trying to hedge their SPCX exposure)?

SpaceX price updated from $160.95 → $173.7
SpaceX stake updated from $42.137B → $45.475B
EchoStar market cap / price updated from $33.06B ($114.08) → $31.89B ($110)
Discount to SpaceX stake alone widened significantly (now 25%–49% range)

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Adding $150 million every hour or so with the 6 rounds of auction each day. Should end today over $2.2 billion. This will be $3.3 billion by the end of tomorrow. The expectation is $4-8 billion for the auction. If it goes beyond this week it could be $10-11 billion.

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Shorts are setting themselves up for a possible squeeze.

Disclosure: I own shares of Echostar and SpaceX.