SpaceXAI has a huge fourth quarter in 2026. It will most be revealed in the November, 2026 earning call. Google’s $920M/month lease hits its full rate on October 1. Anthropic and Reflection are already paying. For the first time, three signed compute contracts run at full freight in the same quarter, against a facility whose capex was spent in 2025 and early 2026. The AI segment that lost $2.47B on $818M of revenue in Q1 2026 should print an operating profit roughly two quarters later — with no new deals required. BUT there could be new deals of the size of the Google and Anthropic deals.
The bull case has been told as a construction story where SpaceX builds gigawatts, sign tenants or monetizes a Grok that is frontier, grow into the capex. The Epoch data says something different. There is capacity that is already standing and more that is being added. Slightly more than half of it is rented. There is a lever with an allocation decision between training Grok and selling Grok services and invoicing someone.
IF SpaceX chose to lease 60% of available capacity or was better able to monetize Grok and Cursor they could achieve positive cashflow in Q4.
Monetization Gap
Epoch AI’s tracking puts Colossus 2 at 440,000 chips installed as of July 1, 2026 — 110k B200 and 330k B300, or ~1,112k H100-equivalents — drawing 946 MW of IT power at an estimated $35.8B capital cost. Of those 440k chips, roughly 223,000 are under lease: Google 110k, Anthropic 95k, Reflection AI 18k.
That leaves 217,000 chips installed, powered, racked, and producing no external revenue. They aren’t idle— they’re training Grok, Cursor. But at Google’s marginal rate of ~$8,400 per chip per month, that internal allocation
represents roughly $22B per year of revenue SpaceXAI is choosing not to bill.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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I’m not sure positive cash flow matters much if:
1. The float is so small that repeated unlocks throughout the rest of the year can cause selling that flattens the stock from massive dilution of shares.
2. Starship keeps failing to reach orbit or even blows up stages of itself. Yes, Starship and rockets in general are small part of SpaceX now, but they are the most visible and highly marketed parts.
3. Grok continues to have single digit market share and/or Musk loses in court against OpenAI for becoming a for-profit company.