SpaceX $100B ARR Yearend 2026 Guidance Over My $96 Billion ARR Bull Case

SpaceX had their Q2 earnings call and guided to $100 B+ ARR. This was just over my bull case of adding three more Google Sized $11 billion per year ($1 billion per month) deals.

Two weeks ago I made a video that indicated that SpaceX would add up to $36 billion per year of new leases beyond $5 billion per month with all of the announced Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI deals. This would be $8 billion per month or $96 billion ARR at yearend.

SpaceX said the supply-demand imbalance in the compute market to continue. The current economics have translated into a less than 1 year payback on our new capital deployments for compute. For example, in the first few weeks of the third quarter, we’ve already contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a 6-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year. They added $1.1 Billion per month of Ai leasing in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.

They believe this puts us on a trajectory including contribution from Cursor to reach $100 billion of ARR or annualized revenue run rate by the end of this year based on the expected revenue in the month of December of this year.

I had another July article talking about SpaceX adding 2 to 2.5 new Google sized deals by end of 2026.

I also called that they would have over 2 Gigawatts of data center energy by the end of 2026.

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SpaceX also described using small cell and femtocell meshes to extend and enhance their direct to cellphone starlink coverage. I covered that in July as well.

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3 thoughts on “SpaceX $100B ARR Yearend 2026 Guidance Over My $96 Billion ARR Bull Case”

  1. Despite having sustainable sounding names like Solaris JV, Solar turbine, APR and Doosan they are not renewable energy sources that are diesel or gas driven turbines. This all adds to adding CO2 to the atmosphere and increasing the risk of catastrophic global warming.

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