In 2022 the US was adding roughly 45–50% of the world’s new compute and China 30–35%. Export controls plus a huge US buildout flipped that: today about 70% of new AI data-center watts are going into America and China is under 10%. US AI chips are 2.3 to 2.7 times better at compute per watt than China chips.
China to stay in that low-single-digit to low-teens share of incremental new compute through most of the next couple of years. By 2028, China will have 30 GW or less of AI compute in total. A lot of what they have now still comes from smuggled or diverted Nvidia/TSMC chips. In 2028, SMIC, CXMT and other domestic fabs start shipping at meaningful volume. This could add 5–10 GW of domestically produced chips in 2028 alone.
Leading Chinese labs (except ByteDance) currently have only 100–200 MW of compute versus Anthropic’s approaching 5 GW.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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