Chris Camillo — the investor who’s turned a small stake into as much as $100M — says Tesla’s robotaxi and Cybercab story is already priced into the stock. We go through the actual numbers on a whiteboard and show why we think he’s missing several layers. FSD subscription revenue today, the Hardware 4 legacy fleet (6M+ vehicles), Cybercab unit economics, and where robotaxi money really comes from vs. where people assume it comes from.
In this video:
0:00 The Cybercab “non-event” and the Chris Camillo debate
1:00 Is Waymo or Tesla actually ahead right now?
2:20 FSD subscription revenue vs. Waymo’s robotaxi revenue
3:40 Hardware payback: how fast Tesla earns back the FSD hardware cost
5:20 The 6 million Hardware 4 cars nobody’s pricing in
7:20 Cybercab unit economics: $30K-$50K per vehicle, gross vs. net
10:00 Why we think this isn’t priced in — the real total
13:00 What IS actually priced in: institutional ownership, optionality
16:00 Optimus, semi, AI5 chips, and the next leg up
19:00 What’s coming next
We’re not saying Chris is wrong about everything — we agree part of the story is priced in. We disagree is how much.
The market is still not counting the FSD legacy fleet, Hardware 4 monetization, AI5/semiconductor business and if things do really completely get solved for FSD and for robotaxi then the revenue and growth will quickly scale to $20 billion of profit by end of 2027 and $200 billion+ of profit in 2029. This is a $10+ trillion valuation that would discount to $5 trillion or more when there is certainty.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.