I identified and detailed the Tesla robotrucking opportunity 13 months ago. Morgan Stanley has now found it as well and has an $840 price target because of it. Other are still missing the potential profitability and stock impact of Tesla’s Semi truck equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), transforming it into a robotruck. FSD is making solid progress in Austin and FSD 14 will be released in September with 10X the parameters.
UPDATE: Morgan Stanley identified Tesla robotrucking 13 months after I did.
Test pilot production has started for Tesla Semi as the factory in Nevada is done.
Robotrucks could generate 10x the profit of Tesla’s Cybercab robo taxis, with each truck potentially yielding $650,000 in annual profit compared to $50,000–$70,000 per year for a robotaxi. This is driven by trucks’ ability to operate 22 hours/day, covering 200,000–350,000 miles/year (4–7x more than taxis), while maintaining similar revenue per mile ($2–$2.60) and lower costs (32–34 cents/mile total ownership cost without drivers).
Production is ramping up to 50,000 units/year, and FSD is progressing rapidly.
Unlike robo taxis, which may face revenue drops competing with personal cars (down to 70 cents/mile), trucking is purely commercial with a stable $2 trillion global market.
This will drive massive Tesla valuation growth: conservative estimates add $3,000–$6,000 to share price by 2030, while capturing the full market could reach $80 trillion (including robotaxis) in share value. Optimus robots could further boost efficiency and demand by 4x, enabling new logistics and economic growth.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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