Brian Wang has had over 90% accuracy with public predictions on public websites like Metaculus and Manifold. OpenAI O3 model has shown that greater than human PHD reasoning is possible but with about 30,000 GPUs taking 30 minutes to infer the answer. I forecast an increase to 1 million GPU AI training from 100,000 at …
Preskill’s has made major contributions to quantum computing including the concept of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” (NISQ) technology. This term describes the current state of quantum computers, which, despite not being fully error-corrected or fault-tolerant, can perform tasks beyond the capabilities of classical machines. The NISQ concept has revolutionized the approach to quantum computing, opening new …
Smart money is selling Uber and buying Tesla for the bet that 2025 will be the year of Tesla robotaxi. Brad Gerstner sold over $1 billion of Uber in his Altimeter Capital fund and bought Tesla in the last weeks. Altimeter reported over $1 billion in Uber as of September 30, 2024 in their 13F …
Humanity is on the verge of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted decades ago that we would reach AGI in 2029. AI and Large Language Models could reach AGI sooner than 2029. However, the definitions of artificial intelligence that surpasses individual humans has issues around definitions and measurement. Kurzweil also predicted the Singularity …
David Shapiro is an AI youtuber who was predicting AGI would arrive in September 2024. His expectations have massively dropped for the speed of AI progress. He has made a few videos talking about AI progress slowing down. Shapiro is over correcting because he hyped it up with an AGI by Sept 2024 prediction. He …
Bill Gates talks about the inevitability that AI will become more intelligent than humans. Bill Gates has insider access and insight into what OpenAI and Microsoft are doing in AI. He believes the next level is to get to human-like metacognition. We need to go beyond the more trivial reasoning of LLM today. Metacognition is …
Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, says humanoid robots will become as common as cars and there will be significant breakthroughs in robotics in the next 2-3 years. This would be about 2 billion humanoid robots. Elon Musk said he thinks there will be ten times as many humanoid robots in the future. This would be 20 …
TeslaFSDTracker provides crowdsourced data about Tesla FSD. They are showing Tesla FSD 12.3.6 users reporting 399 miles between disengagements in City driving. This is over three times more distance than the best version of Tesla FSD 11.X. UPDATE: Elon Musk posted to X on May 8 that FSD 12.4 should start rolling out next week. …
Brian Wang and Randy Kirk recorded this discussion four days before the Q1 earnings call on Tuesday April 23. We predicted several aspects of the earnings call but also post earnings developments. This was recorded at the same time as the reaction video to the insightful BG2 Pod that Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley made. …
Will AI surpass human intelligence to reach AGI (artificial general intelligence) ? I discuss the rapid advancements in AI, tackle whether you should fear it, and discuss its impact on our jobs and the world. Brian WangBrian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His …
The All in Podcast had a discussion and debate about the AI decade. They compare the current AI infrastructure boom with the internet boom. The current situation is less of a bubble because Nvidia is not getting that large a multiple off its real earnings. They are certain that the current build out phase will …