John Gibb (aka Dr Know it All) predicted the in 2020 Cybertruck like design elements of the Tesla Next Generation car. Yesterday, the Elon Musk Biography by Walter Isaacson revealed that the Tesla executive and engineering teams have designed a cybertruck like robotaxi and next generation vehicle. John Gibb went to a first principles design …
RF SQUIDs (radio frequency Superconducting quantum interference device) only need one Josephson junction to work. This is used for magnetic field sensing. It would not need high current or other high performance capabilities. There are two main types of SQUID: direct current (DC) and radio frequency (RF). RF SQUIDs can work with only one Josephson …
Tesla should have over 20% auto gross margin in Q2 2023. This is a big factor for whether the share price of Tesla goes up for the next few months. Tesla Model S and X have an average selling price about twice the Model Y. The Model S and X sales and deliveries in Q1 …
Tesla had a big beat on Q2, 2023 deliveries with 466,140 cars delivered and 479,700 car produced. I think Tesla will trend around 90% of actual production capacity (production being demonstrated sustained over weeks). In Q1 2023, Tesla delivered 423k cars and produced 440k cars. This was about 89% of real peak production capacity. Tesla …
Brian Wang’s public prediction track record at Metaculus is a Brier Score of 0.079 which is about 90% correct predictions. Brier score is a distance from 100% accuracy. Brier Score evaluates the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. If you predict that the event A will occur with a probability of 100%, and the event occurs then …
I believe Novak Djokovic could have a crowning 3 to 6 year run that will establish him as the GOAT of all sports GOATs. I make predictions about the future at Metaculus and I am right about 90% of the time on almost 1000 resolved public predictions. I think it is now clear that Novak …
2035 could be the start of global recessions and depressions that virtually never end. China still has 10-15 years where its economy will not be truly horrible. This is also the time, when European economies also get terrible and the US exists its millennial echo-boom. The only hope will be if AI, robotics and self-driving …
We do NOT know if the climate models are correct. There are predictions that worsening storms and drought will have economic losses that are 20-50 times worse than today by 2050. The older predictions of flooding or winters without snow have not happened. However, we know for certain that lowering birth rates will result in …
Jason Calcanis talks about the new thing this week, AutoGPT, in the AI transformation. Autocomplete coding makes programmers 5-10X productivity. A programmer replicated the Floppy Bird game in one hour. Describing the anxiety and pain points for artists and other jobs that are immediately at risk. Prompt Engineering – Making the Right Wishes of the …
China is expected to add 95 to 120 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2023. China added 87 GW of new solar power into operation in 2022 making the total installed capacity to 392.6 GW at the end of 2022. China probably already added 30-40 GW in 2023 to bring its total installed solar to …
Stephen McAleese, at Less Wrong, used scaling rules and formulas to try to predict the performance of GPT-4. He underpredicted the capabilities of GPT-4. However, he was not widely wrong. GPT-4 came out earlier than he expected and had better performance than expected. Multi-task Language Understanding on MMLU was better than expected. GPT-4 can work …