{"id":15676,"date":"2010-12-19T16:10:00","date_gmt":"2010-12-19T16:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/198.74.50.173\/2010\/12\/reviewing-three-bets-on-uraniu.html"},"modified":"2017-04-07T05:11:43","modified_gmt":"2017-04-07T05:11:43","slug":"reviewing-three-bets-on-uranium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextbigfuture.com\/2010\/12\/reviewing-three-bets-on-uranium.html","title":{"rendered":"Reviewing three bets on uranium production and nuclear power generation"},"content":{"rendered":"
Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009.<\/a> In the first post of the series, he said that uranium “civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years” and “the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable”. Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar<\/p>\n 1. World Uranium production All three bets should be handily won by me this year and I should be winning by larger and larger margins for future years of the bets.<\/p>\n Michael Dittmar’s incorrect articles were also featured in an MIT Technology Review blog about arxiv articles.<\/a> <\/p>\n Dittmar also was cited in an article in the Economist (Green View – Fuelling fears : A uranium shortage could derail plans to go nuclear to cut carbon emissions)<\/a><\/p>\n \n<\/a><\/p>\n Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series<\/b><\/p>\n Dittmar won the nuclear power generation bet for 2009. He said 2575 TWH and I said 2600 TWhe<\/a> <\/p>\n \nActual generation was 2559 TWH – lower because of some problems in France <\/p>\n World nuclear generation for 2010 appears likely to be trending to 80 tWh more than in 2009 (2558 tWh) which would put it at about 2640 tWh.<\/a><\/p>\n Ukraine and China have already passed their 2009 nuclear generation and still have their December generation to add. The USA is generating at 95% in December. <\/p>\n There will be 11-14 new nuclear reactors that will be completed and starting generation in 2011.<\/a> There will also be about 13 reactors completed in 2012. If three of the reactors do not complete in 2011 they will shift to 2012. So 27 nuclear reactors completing over 2011 and 2012 (about 21 GWe which would add about 160 TWH per year).<\/p>\n The Kazakhstan uranium bet were as follows<\/a><\/p>\n The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan.<\/a> So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production. \nKazakstan is on track for 17800 tons of uranium.<\/p>\n Industries and New Technologies Vice Minister Berik Kamaliyev <\/a> predicted October 12, 2010 at a cabinet session that Kazakhstan will mine 17,800 tonnes of uranium in 2010, according to newskaz.ru.<\/p>\n World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018<\/a><\/p>\n \n(Cameco) Canada’s 2010 uranium production is up about 17% over 2009.<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \nThis will mean 3700 more tons of production in Kazakstan and 1000 more tons of production in Canada. Australian uranium production will be lower by close to 2000 tons.<\/p>\n World uranium production looks on track for 54,000-56,000 tons in 2010.<\/p>\n Big Husab mine could be open by 2014 in Namibia (5600 tons\/year)<\/a><\/p>\n China is targeting 112 GWe of nuclear power in 2020.<\/a><\/p>\n Cameco in Canada is targeting doubling uranium production by 2018<\/a><\/p>\n \nIf you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator<\/a><\/b> or StumbleUpon<\/a><\/b>. Thanks<\/i> <\/p> Featured articles<\/b> <\/p>\n Ocean Floor Gold and Copper<\/b><\/a> Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium “civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years” and “the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable”. Basically lack of uranium … <\/p>\n
\n2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018
\n3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan<\/p>\nDittmar Brian Midpoint\n\n2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5\n2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590\n2011 2550 2650 2600\n2012 2550 2700 2625\n2013 2525 2750 2637.5\n2014 2250 2800 2525\n2015 2250 2900 2575\n2016 2250 3200 2725\n2017 2250 3500 2875\n2018 2250 3800 3025\n<\/pre>\n
\nAgain we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.<\/p>\nBrian Wang Dittmar Midpoint\n2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons\n2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons\n<\/pre>\n
Uranium predictions\n Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint\n2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons\n2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons\n2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons\n2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons\n2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons\n2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons\n2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons\n2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons\n2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons\n<\/pre>\n
\n Ocean Floor Mining Company<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"