CALSTART has a May 2023 report on the zero emission U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) truck market (Class 2b–8). It presents deployment statistics for on-road zero-emission trucks (ZETs). Deployments or deployed sales are defined as trucks that have been sold, delivered, and placed into service on U.S. roads.
The cumulative number of U.S. MHD ZET deployments has grown to 5,483 (from January 2017 to December 2022).
59% were in states that—as of December 2022—have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule. About half of the heavy duty electric semi trucks are in California. In 2022 alone, 3,510 MHD ZETs were deployed, surpassing deployments of the previous five years (2017–2021) combined and representing breakthrough growth. Pickup trucks, which became available in 2022, represented nearly one-fourth (831) of these deployments.
In August, 2023, Rivian said they expected to make 52,000 vehicles in the year, up from its previous forecast of 50,000 units.
The growth in the zero-emission cargo van segment (which experienced a 315-fold increase in deployments from 2017 to 2022) reflects the popularity of the new models on the market (e.g., Amazon’s Custom Electric Delivery Vehicle from Rivian, BrightDrop’s Zevo 600, Ford’s E-Transit, etc.) and their relatively low-price premium compared to gasoline-powered vans.
There is a Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit, which provides up to $7,500 in tax credits to mitigate the incremental cost.
From 2011 through 2022, redeemed and unredeemed vouchers from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) for MHD ZETs totaled $315 million over 3,149 units, an average of ~$100,000 per MHD ZET or ~41% of the average original retail price for a deployed MHD ZET.
California’s subsidies have enabled the state to have 47% of total U.S. MHD ZET deployed sales from January 2017 to December 2022. Each dollar invested in MHD ZETs through California’s HVIP program has unlocked $1.42 in private industry investment.
In 2022, total U.S. MHD truck deployed sales (Class 2b–8) increased to 1,186,966 units. Of this total, Class 4–8 deployed sales comprised 334,683 units. California leads the nation in U.S. MHD truck deployed sales, with 78,272 Class 2b–8 units sold in 2022. (California’s Class 4–8 deployed sales were 23,642 units.)
The United States has the largest number of registered trucks globally with 26.7 million units reported in 2022. Pickup trucks (Class 2b/3) dominate with around 14 million registrations.
Five states represent 31% of registered U.S. MHD trucks: California (9.5%), Texas (9.4%), Florida (4.8%), Pennsylvania (4.1%), and New York (3.3%). All other states each comprise 4% or less of registered vehicles.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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