January 07, 2010

After 20 days of Release Avatar is the Number 2 Worldwide Box Office Movie

After 20 days of release. Avatar is the 2nd highest worldwide box office movie (non-inflation adjusted)

I have predicted Avatar will be the number one worldwide box office movie. Somewhat risky prediction. Counting on more "legs" in the foreign markets. Move up from the current 67% foreign to 72% or so. Avatar needs $550+ million domestic and $1.3+ billion foreign.

I am thinking $580 million domestic (with some Oscar boost later this year and not counting likely re-releases). An exceptionally strong and long Imax run could help push it to $650-700 million domestic. Foreign box office of $1.45-1.6 billion is my current guess. Thus about 20% chance of first $2 billion movie and 70% chance of beating Titanic for number one.

Expecting Titanic 3D re-release though.

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