Hybrids and Electric Cars until 2020

JD Powers projects the hybrid (HEV), plug in hybrid (PHEV) and electric car (BEV) markets until 2020. They project that of the 1.2 billion passenger cars on the road that about 20 million might be HEV/PHEV and 4 million will be BEV by 2020. A 5% or greater improvement in the efficiency of the dominant internal combustion engine vehicles will have greater impact than the total HEV/PHEV and BEV vehicles in 2020. Greater impact also comes from electric bicycles (150 million already in China) and electric scooters and motorcycles.

J.D. Power research shows that US consumers’ interest in alternative powertrains drops considerably when they are advised of the price premium associated with the purchase of an HEV or BEV. For example, while 61% of consumers surveyed said they were interested in purchasing a hybrid vehicle, only 30% said they were still interested when they learned the price would be US $5,000 more than that of a comparable ICE-powered vehicle. Additionally, 17% of consumers surveyed initially said they were interested in buying a BEV, but this proportion dropped to 5% after they were advised that the price would be US $15,000 higher than a traditional ICE-powered vehicle.

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