The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 5.0 percent on August 1, up from 4.7 percent on July 31. The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.
The second quarter GDP was 4.1%.
U.S. GDP was $19.8 trillion at the end of 2017. Current-dollar GDP increased 7.4 percent, or $361.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.4 trillion. The US GDP is tracking to $21.1 to 21.2 trillion at the end of 2018. If the US had similar economic performance for 2019 then the US GDP would be $22.6 trillion at the end of 2019.
Does GDP still include consumer spending, ie increasing debt to China?
Does GDP still include consumer spending ie increasing debt to China?
Does GDP still include consumer spending, ie increasing debt to China?
Does GDP still include consumer spending ie increasing debt to China?
Does GDP still include consumer spending, ie increasing debt to China?
Economists are only slightly more useful that philosophers and contemporary journalists.
I’ve lost track of the number of undergrads with economics degrees i’ve interacted with who can’t say what will happen to the economy at a macro level when something changes.
You are so right, the economy won’t collapse because of the trade war but if something else slows the economy down having a trade war will slow down the recovery.
Inflation was also up this month… I can’t quite give all of last months boost to the Trade War but the effect was real and there will be a persistent long term decrement the economy corresponding to the other side of that effect.
>”5% is unlikely” and the folks who said said before that it was IMPOSSIBLE to have 3% — let alone 4% — GDP growth rates over time as well.
You didn’t get 5% yet, 5% was a prediction and the people brian is quoting already revised their prediction for Q2 to 3.8%
Trump only got 2.6% for 2017
>That’s not what the mainstream news is saying. They are flat out lying about the economy totally collapsing from the trade war.
The numbers came from before tariffs hit, where every retailer started stockpiling in anticipation of the trade war
The US experienced record steel imports, right after the tariffs were announced as companies that used steel tried to stockpile as much as possible before implementation.
Basically all the companies shot their load and spent all the cash they had on hand hence why Q2 is predicted to be 3.8% , Q3 and Q4 are going to have much shittier numbers
GDP growth numbers you have annual GDP growth that is split into 4 quarters Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4
Trump is claiming he can get 5% annual
Q1 was 2.2%, Q2 is predicted 3.8% (And the predictions are always too optimistic so realistically he gets 2.8% Q2) Which means he would need 5%+ for Q3 and Q4 which is not likely because companies already spent everything they had for the year buying things that are now sitting in warehouses.
First off I had no idea you were that conservative… Wow!
I agree about the pendulae swing but to me there also seems to be a longer term drift to the right in our governance which is going counter to the actual political trends of our citizens. If you think about the level of conservatism in both the Congress and the Presidency they seems to be increasing with Trump more conservative than Bush, Bush (43) more conservative than Reagan (I’m ignoring Bush 41,) Reagan more conservative than Nixon.
The tax cut is Keynesian in the sense that it is stimulating demand side too. Note, the windfall from the corporate side of the cuts doesn’t seem to be turning into wages or jobs so I’m thinking got it backwards. Note, we’ll know which of us is right in about a another year or so. If I’m right the economy peters out as the individual tax cuts phase out.
By the way if I thought Trump actually thought things though I would actually propose another better reason for his tax cut. As it is I don’t want a anybody touting it in public least he claims that was his idea all along.
As opposed to 9% – 11% as they claimed and still claim to have had during most of those decades?
“5% is unlikely” and the folks who said said before that it was IMPOSSIBLE to have 3% — let alone 4% — GDP growth rates over time as well.
” Furthermore GDP is temporarily boosted because of the trade war.”
That’s not what the mainstream news is saying. They are flat out lying about the economy totally collapsing from the trade war.
ONLY 8% of US GDP is involved in import/exports of goods.
A lot of economists = folks who are discredited Keynesians.
Either way, they were flat out wrong while the Supply Side architects of our current boom were proven right.
Treasury forecasts have always been wrong
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2017-02-23-treasury-sticks-to-its-growth-expectations/
>For example, in the 2012 budget, Treasury forecast real GDP growth for fiscal 2014 of 4.2%. A year later, it forecast it would be 3.5%, and in the 2014 February budget it predicted it would be 2.7%. The actual figure for real economic growth for 2014 was 1.5%.
https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/GDP_forecasts_1_mar_18.png
5% is unlikely, Furthermore GDP is temporarily boosted because of the trade war. Retailers and traders are stocking up as much as possible before the tariffs hit.
Different groups also has different forecasts
also the group Brian is citing already dropped their predictions from 4.8% to 3.8% in 2 days
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/07/01/second-quarter-u-s-gdp-growth-forecast-drops-1-in-two-weeks/#52424e1e3db3
>The high point for the second quarter’s GDPNow forecast was 4.8%, which was reached on June 1 and June 14. It only dropped to 4.5% on Wednesday but with the personal income and outlays data on Friday the forecast fell to 3.8%. This compares to the Blue Chip economists average estimate of 3.5% growth in the quarter.
Actually it’s certainly higher if you factor all those years of double digit growth numbers. However, they are probably slightly below that number now and will continue to decline as they develop more over the coming decades.
A lot of economists think there is no way that 4.0% GDP growth is sustainable. The total GDP for 2018 looks like it will be about 2.9% because of the lower first quarter number (which is about 0.5% higher that the current inflation rate.)
Manufacturing is starting to move to Mexico from China. It is now cheaper to manufacture in Mexico and it is part of NAFTA (hopefully the Umber Golem of Chaos won’t do to much damage).
Not to mention the horrific pollution that chops off an average of 5.5 years life expectancy in industrialized areas. But the progressives who natter on about plastic straws in the US turn a blind eye to Chinese pollution.
While “Make America Great Again” is a fine sound-bite, and while Mr. Trump (whom, unlike so many, I have no regrets having in office) is “conventionally” taking credit for the high GDP numbers, I think it serves to remember that pendulums in motion … swing … both to the right and to the left.
At present, we’re in the process of swinging from substantially-to-the-Left (The Obama years) to now kind-of center, and if the Trump administration has its druthers, somewhat more to the Right. This includes continued eradication of many of the ill-guided social nets and business restrictions that typifies the early 3rd millennium Left polity.
Will it continue to power an impressively expansionist GDP?
Do we WANT it to?
When the bullish Trump Honeymoon era is nigh, then what?
Remember, pendulae swing.
And this one too shall swing to the right, then to the left.
GoatGuy
See comment above.
NOT at all, actually. China has become the World’s Noo 1 producer of really, really inexpensive stuff. They’ve done and are doing this on the backs of a labor force that still has 9 out of 10 workers subsisting below any meaningful measure of ”poverty”. Especially when the relatively new problem of higher-cost housing is figured into the hundreds-of-millions of in-metropolis “clean sweatshop” subsistence workers. To save costs, they hot-bunk micro-apartments. Now, what kind of existence is THAT?
It is amongst the oddest things to me: our very, very liberal, very sensitive, very easily overwrought media, ever itching for a juicy story, continually overlooks this blindingly disturbing plight. Of a sub-population at LEAST as large as Europe’s entire body of citizens.
No.
China is firmly in the lead.
And will remain so as long as her people are scraping by on rice and soy sauce.
GoatGuy
Really. China’s GDP growth rate for last 3 decades is 6+%.
Only count your chickens after they have hatched.
MAGA!
Permanent is a LONG time.
US has got China firmly and permanently in its rearview mirror.