Next Great Hope for Tesla Killer is the Ford Mach-E Crossover SUV

Ford will launch an all-electric cross-over SUV called the Mach E with pricing starting at around $40,000 in late 2020.

The Mustang Mach-E will be built on a dedicated EV platform, we can only speculate on the battery pack and its powertrain specifications. We’re told that the Mustang Mach-E will be able to travel at least 300 miles on a single charge, which indicates a 100-kWh battery that’s similar to the pack that powers the Tesla Model S 100D. We also believe the electrified Ford SUV will feature an electric motor up front and one in the rear that together provide all-wheel drive.

Tesla Model Y production is expected to begin in late 2020 for North America, and in early 2021 for Europe and China. Standard Range production is expected to begin in early 2021 for North America, and in early 2022 for Europe and China. Model Y has 300 mile Range and all-wheel drive.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E will be an attempt to go head-to-head against Tesla with a car that targets the same price and features.

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy is a Tesla bear. He has a price target of $200 for Tesla. Tesla is currently trading around $351. Credit Suisse noted that Tesla has nearly an 80% share of the U.S. market for electric vehicles but Levy believes the Model 3 and Model Y will face a serious challenge from Ford in 2020 with the Mach-E.

Matching Tesla on vehicle range and performance will be difficult. Tesla also has a lead with self-driving.

Analysts expect Tesla will have margins in the mid-30s with China car production.

About 25% of Tesla’s available shares are held by short-sellers. Shorts bet a stock will go down so they can make money from the decline in the price.

Tesla in 2020 will have mass production ramped at the China Shanghai factory.
Tesla will launch the Model Y. Tesla will launch its cybertruck.
Tesla will have continuously improving self-driving.
Tesla in 2021 will have production from a new factory in Berlin.
Tesla will be introducing improved battery technology from its Maxwell Technology acquisition.

SOURCES- Ford, Car and Driver, Tesla, CNBC
Written By Brian Wang,

43 thoughts on “Next Great Hope for Tesla Killer is the Ford Mach-E Crossover SUV”

  1. I’ve done some (brief) research as well after your comment, those 8.6Ah 26650 cells seems to come at least at 3-4$ each even in bulk, so 0.72$ is a steal!
    I suspect that those you found were some sort of special offer batch of a low-cost Chinese manufacturer, probably not automotive-grade ones ( = made to keep 80% capacity after 8-10 years or 2-3000 cycles), nor were they assembled in some impact-resistant casing (surviving the crash but then dying in a battery fire would be unforgivable).

  2. I saw a picture when them side by side. They are far more similar than I thought. I still don’t like the back though.

  3. My objection is not to the girlytruck softroader style. I have no objection to other people subjecting themselves to that.

    But the “Mustang” brand and image is something that has been built up and nurtured over half a century. Millions of kids have posters on their bedroom walls. It’s something people love. It was damaged very badly in the mid-70s and it is just wrong to do that again.

  4. Speaking for myself, I don’t want to “kill” Tesla, I’d just like some reasonable alternatives to their EVs.

  5. It does seem odd to try to brand this as a Mustang. Don’t have an issue with 4-doors, as such, but it does look too bloated to be called a Mustang. Mustang SUV is not a fit to me.

    But, hey, if people like these and buy them, fine. Every car does not have to appeal to every driver.

  6. Actually.. you are correct. I missed the the “it” in “it isn’t” which changes the meaning completely. My bad.

  7. I am rooting for Tesla, and I own shares.. But I find the E-Mach much better looking than the model Y. Of course nobody cares who mounted a big screen first in the car. I also doubt that mid 5 seconds 0-60 is a deal breaker with customers. My doubts are with Fords ability to make a quality battery pack, selling the car at a profit at 40 kUSD and Fords ability to ramp production.

  8. I honestly don’t care so much about the carbon emissions as the lower cost of maintenance and fuel for the EV. We have the potential for massively cheaper cars as well as a massively reduced cost of operation. That’s the big thing, not the carbon reduction. And of course, self driving (but that is not related to the cars being electric)…

  9. I agree that on current trajectories the EVs will just end up cheaper to make AND run than the ICVs and that will be the end of things.

    Current EVs are the result of a decade of mass production optimization, while the ICVs are the result of well over a century. They are on completely different sloped learning curves and the end result seems clear.

    The only question is how quickly it works out.

  10. Pictures are out: looks like the Donk-E. I don’t think Tesla has anything to worry about.

    Maybe I am being too harsh. Some people don’t like the front end. I think that is OK. I don’t like the back end and I don’t like the way all the modern cars have low roofs. But the real problem is a mid 5 second 0-60. I think that is going to kill them.

    They stole the big display. Who isn’t going to notice that? Screams “follower” not “leader”.

    All this could be forgiven for a $25,000 price tag. But they still want quite a bit.

  11. Even if your claims were true (which they are not), it is perception that sells cars.

    In this case, the perception is true and not your claims. Coal made up just 27.5% of the US grid energy production in 2018 and is falling fast.
    13.9% less, year to date. Can’t compete with natural gas. And renewables are rising quickly. Wind now produces more than hydro, and nuclear is in the mix, of course:

    In 2019 the coal companies have been dying like flies:
    No coal being built. Here is what is being built:

    With autopilot there will be very few accidents, and accidents that result in fires make up only a small fraction of accidents with Teslas being no more prone to fires than other cars. When Tesla starts using solid state battery technology, there should be no fires due to Tesla accidents.

    Tesla does not use thousands of gallons of gasoline to make a Tesla battery. Loon claims. There is a difference between information and propaganda.

    It is possible that a Prius is actually more environmentally friendly, but with the low performance, it will not attract everyone. And, if you live in a State where nuclear or hydro makes most of the power, the Tesla is the clear environmental winner.

  12. Quite the contrary. The folks that buy the electrics have no clue about the environmental impact of electrics. Take the guy that can’t find anyone to recycle his wrecked Tesla for example

    Then there’s the environmental cost of the battery packs; 8.5 years of a gas powered vehicle just to manufacture, then there’s the cold hard fact of where the electricity comes from… you’re burning coal. Until nuclear has it’s day (solar, wind, and hydro just don’t have enough density to satisfy the demand created by replacing the fleet), it is what is is … Electric is not enviro friendly. Period.

    Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t give up, it just means that we need to take the enviro blinders off and face reality.

  13. Exactly. That said coming from the proud owner of a 2018 F150 XLT and a 2018 Mustang GT 5.0 (I paid cash as always). Now there are rumors of a dual motor electric Mustang with 900 HP and a but load of torque coming, which is interesting, but where would I charge it in fly over country?

  14. Well, your explanation is not without merit. Of course, you could argue that a company that is fighting to increase it’s market share would go for the low hanging fruits first..

  15. Model Y has not been shown yet. It will be unveiled 21 november.
    musk has stated that every design leak is completely off. Not even close
    how can you say that model y is ugly?

  16. I guess the question is: Will people buy these who don’t give a rip about the environment, and don’t want anyone to think they believe in climate change?
    Not saying that describes every Ford loyalist, but the F-150 is their top seller. They did spend money to bring down the weight if the F-150 but they certainly could have made the drive train more efficient and reduced fuel consumption much more. They had the technology to add hydraulic breaking regeneration within the transmission requiring almost no changes to anything else. They did not do it. I have to ask…Why?

  17. I have already replied to this comment, but for some reason the comment is gone.. So, the meat is that battery cells cost about 100 USD per kWh, not 26 USD per kWh. This is what both Tesla, WV and industry analysts claim. You must have found some batteries on sale, some low quality batteries or the like.

  18. They had just made the X. I suppose they wanted to avoid sabotaging themselves. I think they should have gone directly from the X to the Semi. If it is far cheaper to operate and maintain, trucking companies would have been virtually forced to buy them. But Tesla is still alive, so maybe they knew what they were doing. The Model 3 has sold. If they Made the Model Y first. They probably would not have made the Model 3 at all. And the Model 3 did have some issues at first. If it was the Y with those issues, it might have hurt sales. As it is, the Y will probably have the fewest issues at launch, which should help sales immensely.
    But I tell you, the new Roadster should definitely not be a priority. I think they have already proven that they can make high performing cars. It is not that important to beat the million dollar exotics. Someone will prove that electrics can do crazy things, not so critical that it must be Tesla.
    The Pickup and the Semi are also the best choices for reduction in fossil fuel use. Next would be something like the Hummer. Something rugged, big, roomy, very off road capable…higher profile. Now that may be their idea of a pickup…we should know soon. Gotta be Schwarzenegger approved…rather than something that appears to be made by Apple. May as well go for the biggest guzzler territory.
    And they should work to bring down the cost of the S and the X. A lot of people prefer larger cars. These can be redesigned to be cheaper to build.

  19. Two things to remember:

    1. Ford still has access to the full US tax credit. In a few months, Tesla’s limited tax credit will be gone. Thus, to the retail customer with appropriate tax liability, the Ford product will be much less expensive.
    2. Ford needs to sell cars like these to meet fleet emissions requirements. Thus, it can afford to sell these without profit. The key indicator will be if these cars are limited in availability…compliance cars.
  20. But you just suggested that it was enthusiasts that bought the model 3 in the comment above! And now you are pretending that it was I who said it…! Come on, DrPat…

  21. Easier to ramp up production to a lower number, and easier to iron out bugs. Fewer cars to recall, etc. if an aspect goes tits up. The Y is the same car with a different body plonked on top, so it makes sense to prototype the lower market cap version first.

  22. The point of Tesla was always to push other manufacturers to go electric, that was stated right at the start. That’s why they released all their old patents a few years ago. Glad it’s finally happening.

  23. I hesitate to try to guess what a marketing droid was thinking, but it isn’t ridiculous to suggest that the early adopters, car and tech enthusiasts were the people buying Teslas a couple of years ago.
    Now that you see Teslas everywhere, and they have completely failed to burst into flames and die, they are much more acceptable for the mainstream car buyer.

    Ironically I just saw a car on fire, and it was a solid, reliable, unbreakable, Toyota Hilux.

  24. But they are betting on that there are even more people buying the model Y than the model 3 now, are they not? So did these customers not exist a couple of years ago when the model 3 was launched?

  25. Well, guacho25 are not talking about the cells but the packs. And you do need a factory to produce the battery packs…

  26. If Ford can sell the lower end car for about 40 kUSD, then this would be really impressive and they may actually have a competitive car. Note that model Y is really skirting ugly, and if someone comes up with a car that is roughly the same on performance and price, but much nicer looking, then they could have a more compelling product.

    Please notice that there is a big if in the above paragraph. We don’t even know if Ford can make this price point profitably and if they can even ramp up the volume. It may be that it’s not that easy to convert IC factories to EV factories…

  27. Please notice that 8000 USD in added production cost [1] – not counting the saving due to simplified EV construction compared to ICV – is still a very large production cost increase. But, the time is on the side of the EV. Sooner or later the battery pack price will be less than the savings from simplified mechanics, especially considering that the maintenance of the EV is much lower. A customer may be willing to pay more up front for being able to save on fuel and maintenance costs.

    If Tesla can manage to produce battery packs at 100 USD per kWh (packs, not cells), and a car typically has 80 kWh this equates to 8000 USD production cost.

  28. My guess is that you have found some batteries on sale, some defect batteries, some batteries that were “left over”, found super low quality batteries or simply a scam. Because the alternative is that every one else is lying.

    WV is lying when they smugly leak [1] that they can get cells for less then 100 USD per kWh for their upcoming vehicles, Tesla was lying when they stated that they were at the brink of getting under 100 USD per kWh in 2018 [2] and the industry pundits that claim that the industry average was 160 USD per kWh in 2018 were also lying.



  29. I’ve been doing a little kilowatt-hour research … using the interwebz and Google searching, of course. I’ve found that I can pick up with no additional postage, 100 ea., of the 26650 LiIon cell for essentially 73¢/ea.  Each offers some 8.6 A⋅h of current capacity, with a mean full-to-nearly-empty voltage of 3.55 V. Say one can use competent engineering to spec these then at 8.6 A⋅h × 3.55 V = 30.5 W⋅hr per, with a 92% utilization coming in at 28 Wh/cell. With the dollars figured in, that is $26 a kilowatt hour. 

    Now this is quantity 100.  

    I’m pretty sure that if you or I were willing to commit to a purchase of a 40 foot container load of the things, they’d be somewhat cheaper by the unit. Probably on the order of 40% of the above, or eleven bucks $11/kWh.  

    This would be the cost of buying the cells for Ford to make their Mustang, or Chevy their Volt and Bolt, or for Mr. Musk to make his Teslas. Eleven bucks a kilowatt hour.  Granted, it takes some fairly pricey machinery and manufacturing space to cut out all the metal bits, bend, weld, form and run all the wires and doohickeys. 

    But still … the main cost has to be the cells. 

    At this price, it really ought to be fairly easy to make a cost-effective competent electric passenger vehicle now. Seriously so.

    Just Saying,
    GoatGuy ✓

  30. Yes, the small crossovers are very popular in the market as a whole, but are they more popular with car and tech enthusiasts? The sort of people who would buy a Tesla?

  31. There is also a lot of Ford loyalty. What Ford needs to do is NOT push the Ford loyalists away which is what would happen if Ford just did not have a competitive EV in the market when those people started to want one.

  32. Considering that the Tesla battery uses COTS cells, I’m not really wondering where Ford’s battery factory izat.

  33. It’s clear with the Model 3 they were going after the sport coupe and performance sport sedan market, namely the BMW 3 series. That means enthusiasts, mostly. It also means no crossovers for that market segment.

    Where are the batteries? Where are the Battery factories. This is yet another ME too so don’t buy a Tesla just wait moment. ORRR My thingy is bigger than your thingy. HEE HEE

    Heard the same BS from the CEO of Lockheed Martin and space launches.

  35. Finally, love seeing some EV competition. I’m really looking forward to this unveiling.

    Although of course not as much as the Tesla pickup 4 days later 🙂

  36. What I don’t get is why Tesla didn’t start with the model Y instead of the model 3? The small crossover has a larger market than the small sedan.. They share about 75% of the parts… So, why not build the more popular model first?

  37. *Not* a Mustang, and not a Tesla killer, by any stretch. Additionally, this is Ford we’re talking about. They have plenty of ways to screw this up, looking at their past products.

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