Projecting Tesla Batteries and Revenue to 2030 $TSLA

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Tesla will make about 2 million model 3, model Y and 80k Model S and X in 2023 and will have mostly ramped the Lathrop Megapack factory. This will mean about 170 GWh of batteries used by Tesla for its commercial products. Cybertruck and Semi are in production but will not be in ramped mass production until 2024.

Tesla made 500,000 cars in 2020 and this was about 37 GWH of batteries. Tesla will have increased over 400% in batteries in 3 years. If Tesla increases batteries installed in products in 2026 by 400%, then this will be 750 GWh per year in 2026. If Tesla increases batteries installed in products in 2026 by another 400%, then this will be 3000 GWh per year in 2029. A further doubling of batteries would be by 2031.

I have analyzed how Tesla could lower prices to reach higher sales volume. I have also looked at how Tesla could reach $500 billion in revenue with sales of Gen 3 vehicles, lower priced Model 3/Y and scaling Semi, Megapack and Cybertruck and a new Van.

It could take until 2027 for Tesla to have enough batteries for the $500-600 billion per year in hardware revenue. If Tesla can ramp its 4680 batteries and get to 3000 GWHh of batteries per year in 2027 then Tesla could have $1-1.2 trillion per year in revenue. Tesla will make more from Teslabot, FSD and other software revenue.

I think more aggressive pricing is needed to reach the potential higher volumes. Tesla should get towards 40 million units per year for its products. Although the Gen 3 vehicle will have the most units, it will not have the highest total revenue by product.

Tesla Semi and Megapack have the most revenue potential if Tesla can dominate the markets for those products. They will need a lot of batteries for those products.

The Megapack is the most efficient use of batteries to generate $100 billion in revenue. The Megapack needs the least batteries to get the most revenue. Getting Lathrop and expanded China factory up to 40,000 units per year would mean 156 GWH of batteries and adding $100 billion per year. There will especially be the need of more Megapacks if there are more Semi and Cybertruck sales. Those vehicles will need more charging stations that use a lot of Megapacks.

Tesla will drop from $500-600B per year in revenue per Terawatt hour per year in batteries to $300-400 billion per year in revenue per Terawatt hour per year. This would not include FSD and other software revenue.

Tesla Megapack ramping needs the utilities to be able generate profits from storing solar and wind power to peak usage times. Megapack sales could also become like SpaceX Starlink launches driving SpaceX launches. Tesla will need to accelerate charging station deployments with lots of new megacharging with Megapacks with mass produced Semi trucks.

Tesla can make $30-60 billion per year in revenue for each 100 GWh/year of batteries from supplier partners or from their own 4680 battery production.

8 thoughts on “Projecting Tesla Batteries and Revenue to 2030 $TSLA”

  1. Lithium batteries only make sense for mobile applications where high energy density is critical. For stationary applications the important thing is high energy storage per dollar invested, and the ability to have *lots* of cycles without degradation. That is why pumped hydro was the only significant grid scale storage for decades.
    So something like the batteries this company is working on look better for that application. https://ambri.com/

  2. Brian, you’re still fixated on automobiles. I keep telling you, a few years down the line, Tesla won’t be known as a car company, they’ll be known as an energy company. Look at the growth of the energy storage division. It’s going to make their automotive division look like a lemonade stand. I even see a day when they become an OEM for other automakers, providing drive assemblies, rolling skateboard chassis, or just batteries, and actively stop selling a Tesla branded vehicle.

  3. Brian, you’re still fixated on automobiles. I keep telling you, a few years down the line, Tesla won’t be known as a car company, they’ll be known as an energy company. Look at the growth of the energy storage division. It’s going to make their automotive division look like a lemonade stand. I even see a day when they become an OEM for other automakers and actively stop selling a Tesla branded vehicle.

  4. Way too optimistic.

    Tesla is at about 90-100 billion in revenue in 2023. With an annual growth rate of 50%, it would reach about 500 billion by the end of 2027, which would be amazing. 1-1.2 trillion is not on the table

    • Note that this kind of annual growth rate becomes harder and harder by each year. To maintain it, Tesla would have to add about 900k units in 2024, without any new factories. Difficult.

      But in 2025, Tesla would have to add about 1.5 million units and the only new resource would be the not yet fully ramped Giga Mexico factory. Let’s say 200k from Giga Mexico. That would leave 1.2 million added from Austin, Berlin, Shanghai and Freemont… Fremont is not really growing that much so Austin, Berlin and Shanghai would each have to add about 400k. Which is just barely possible.

      2026 becomes even more challenging… Adding more than 2.2 million cars in production.

      This is why none of the analysts believe Tesla can maintain a growth rate of 50% per year

      • The growth is not and never has been 50% per year its AVERAGE 50% a year they could do only 20% one year and enough the next to compensate … for instance when Mexico is ramping fast.
        2026 lets say a miss then two factories coming online, 2027 okish and 2028 a blow out. IF they solve FSD demand will be stratospheric.
        They have said for a decade Tesla will not make 50% growth so far they have been wrong.

        • Yes, the growth rate is slated for 50% per year on average, but Brian’s prediction was specifically for 2027. An average growth rate of 50% is just barely possible.

          And I agree, if FSD becomes a reality in this time frame, the demand will be stratospheric, but production will not increase just because demand is unlimited.

          I am a Tesla bull, but Brian is overestimating Teslas production growth over and over again. In 2022, he was projecting a production of 2-2.2 million for 2022. He is just not allowing for any realistic ramp time

  5. Well, providing demand hasn’t dropped through the floor or temporarily exceeded supply, the quantity of money required to purchase something is primarily a factor of how much human effort was involved in providing what is being purchased, or would be required to produce a suitable substitute or workaround (collectibles and real estate both being something of an exception, as well as the time and efforts of certain exceptional individuals) .

    Armies of TeslaBots, if working as advertised, could really mess with that equation. In a way, TeslaBots themselves could then be considered a kind of currency, or a workaround for it. Tesla might then considered as printing money (or a workaround for it).

    It gets weird fast. I think I may need a Neuralink to keep up (or maybe a flamethrower).

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