The new Tesla Model Y RWD likely has changed to Iron LFP batteries from China. The $43,990 price has the full $7500 subsidy this year. This will be because the batteries will be sourced from China but the lithium comes from Australia. This could change next year unless the battery sourcing is adjusted for the 2024 requiremetns.
The removal of the AWD (All Wheel Drive) means the lower cost version using 4680 batteries will stop production. The 4680 batteries will be diverted over to the Cybertruck.
There is likely about 2.5 to 4 GWh of 4680 batteries that will be produced in Q4. This would be enough for about 30,000-50,000 Cybertrucks each quarter if they are using 80 to 100 kWh packs. This would grow as the 4680 production continues to ramp.
If the 4680 production ramps in 2024 to 100 GWh per year then this would be 25 GWh per quarter. This would be enough for 300,000 Cybertruck per quarter. The 4680s at that point could be used for Semi trucks and other products with more abundant supply.
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Move to LFP should improve battery safety. That comes at 14% energy density cost and not sure of the weight.
It will take time to ramp Cybertruck production. My guess is a few thousand cybertrucks in 2024. Look at the slow ramp in Texas and Berlin. It’s a couple of years after the start and Texas and Berlin are at 250k and 300k rate respectively. And that was with known technology for a model that they were already producing at two other sites…
100kWh isn’t enough for a truck.
Silverado has 212kWh.
No way CT is 2x the efficiency of the Silverado.
In real life, trucks consume 500-700Wh per mile. If you want a 300 mile range truck, it will take a minimum of 150kWh usable battery capacity.
Plus running heater or air conditioning, plus efficiency loss in very cold weather, etc. Probably more like 250Kwh minimum.
I agree, 150-175kWh is more reasonable. Those angles can’t be that efficient. Everything else probably will be. I do think they intend to deliver on the 500-mile range claim. Anything else and there will be jeering.
[ with keeping in mind, that energy for temperature conditioning on gas engine driven cars is from liquid fuel energy content (partly useful, wrt excessive heat emission from combustion engine thermodynamics, ~15ga gas tank ~500kWh), air conditioning ~0.5-3.5kWh/hour, cooling/heating for an EV is ~5-30% range reduction (table with outside temperatures, AC demand and effects (incl. battery efficiency, traction of tires on sun_heated(120-140°F/50-60°C)/rainy/snowy/icy track) on real range?) ]
[ e.g. 15ga may provide with a 150-450(-650)mi range, from light truck (~7l V8), pick-up to economical passenger car or a Prius Hybrid (~42-50mpg) ]