Fully Ramped Tesla Megapack and 4680 Production Lines in 2024

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Superior Tesla performance in 2024 can come from surprising scaling of the Tesla Megapacks and 4680s. Tesla will just need to replicate the fully ramped each of the first Megapack and 4680 production line to a ten or more lines each.

Tesla will like have ten Megapack lines fully ramped by the end of 2024 and ten 4680 lines fully ramped by the end of 2024. This would be 100 GWh/year runrate of Megapacks and 200-250 GWh/year runrate for 4680s.

Fully ramped 4680s will supply batteries for Cybertrucks, Semis and some other vehicles and storage. Domestically produced batteries will enable fully qualification for $7500 per vehicle tax credits and $45 per kwh battery tax credits.

The Megapacks at Lathrop were limited to one of two lines in 2023 due to shortages of silicon carbide power chips. This has reported to have been solved a couple of months ago. This has enabled both lines to operate in Q4 and both lines should be maximized in Q1 and onwards in 2024. 40 GWh per year would be $16-18 billion per year in revenue and $5-6 billion in profit. This would be $4-4.5 billion per quarter in revenue and $1.2-1.5 billion in profit per quarter. Tesla could double the Lathrop factory to expand from 2 to 4 lines, build a new megapack factory in Shanghai and add a line in Nevada. If Tesla gets to 100 GWh of megapack by the end of 2024 this would be $20 billion per quarter in revenue and $5-6 billion per quarter in profit.

The 4680 battery line took far longer to ramp to 25 GWh per year but the first Texas line should be fully ramped by Q2 2024. All future 4680 battery lines would just need production ramps and would not need research and development.

100 GWh per year needs 85 million cells per month.
21 million cells per month per line.

Tesla needs to start and bring 20 lines to full production. This would be started before the 6 month technical ramp of the first line. There is equipment to install and staff to train. In 6-9 months, Tesla would have a 500 GWH/year runrate. 420 million cells per month by replicating the lines.

7 thoughts on “Fully Ramped Tesla Megapack and 4680 Production Lines in 2024”

  2. Forget cars. I’ve always figured the energy division would greatly overshadow the car division, to the point I made a prediction a few years ago that Tesla might just sell or spin off the car division completely The global energy market is huge compared to passenger cars. The IRA Act will see to it that a national battery manufacturing sector arises.

  3. Does anyone know if Tesla has different research teams for battery production? Maybe one team in China, one in the U.S., and another in Japan (Panasonic)? I’m curious to see if they are using competition between R&D teams to spur innovation and increase production.

    Lots of wild speculation about battery production, but not much substantive proof about problems and successes.

  4. A lot of this reporting seem to contradict a Reuters article from Dec 21st.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/austin-we-have-problem-tesla-descends-into-battery-hell-2023-12-21/
    According to the article, sources close to Tesla claim that scaling up 4680 battery production at their new Austin factory has been plagued by manufacturing issues. One major problem allegedly involves excessive heat during production, which causes the dry coating on the cathode to melt and become unusable. This issue reportedly caused a significant delay in the production timeline for the Tesla Cybertruck, which relies on the 4680 batteries. At the moment, Tesla’s Austin factory takes about 16 weeks to make 10 million 4680 cells, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from Tesla, verified by the three sources. That means that line can only produce enough batteries for 24,000 pick up trucks a year. I don’t know how they would supply the batteries for the Semi’s too.

    • The production issues are known, but it looks like Tesla might be on track now and increasing production by about 30% per month.

      And Cybertruck production is absolutely not limited by batteries; 24 000 per year is way more than the line can produce right now. By the time the line approaches 24 000 per year ( December 2024?), battery production will be far larger…

  5. Time to lower their price for the power wall , I’m able to find 200 euro per kWh batteries, this is a great product and only wait a lower price to hit sales records

  6. ”Tesla will like have ten Megapack lines fully ramped by the end of 2024 and ten 4680 lines fully ramped by the end of 2024”

    No.

    If things go well, Tesla will have two fully ramped lines (in Lathrop) and two (in Shanghai) that are just starting to ramp. Say… a run rate of 50 Gwh per year.

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