Despite steady improvements in quantum computers, they are still noisy and error prone, which leads to questionable or wrong answers. In June, 2023, scientists predicted that Quantum Computers won’t truly outcompete todays classical supercomputers for at least five or 10 years, until researchers can adequately correct the errors that bedevil entangled quantum bits, or qubits.
Do we want better batteries for better electric cars?
Do we want better chemistry?
How about better fertilizers to feed more people?
Do we want better AI?
Do we want the whole world economy to be bigger where logistics and supply chains are more efficient?
Really big error corrected quantum computers could solve the some currently impossible problems and solve some very useful problems faster and increase the rate of progress.
The Harvard led, MIT, QuEra and NIST/Maryland Usher advance in Quantum error correction with 48 qubit published on Wednesday brings forward when Quantum Computers become worldchanging.
I discuss the impact of the breakthrough with Randy Kirk.
Vladan expects sometime in 2025, QuEra will be able to get 10,000 to 100,000 physical qubits.
They will be able to get 100 error corrected qubits with 1 in a million to 1 in 100 million error rates.
This will mean very robust error correction with more physical qubits per logical qubit.
If this target is met then there QuEra will be delivering rapid progress and before 2028 commercial quantum error corrected computer systems that will be delivering commercially valuable work.
Prof. Vuletic did not commit that QuEra will have a 100 Qubit system with less 1 in a million in two years. A computer with such capabilities will be demonstrated in the labs (e.g. Harvard or MIT) in two years, and later then perhaps turned into a commercial product.
In general, the process is roughly the following:
Year “X” / 2025: lab demo of a capability
Year “X+1” / 2026 : early-access customers can use this capability through QuEra
Year “X+2” / 2027: this capability becomes available for on-prem systems
Q-CTRL is a quantum computer error suppression, error mitigation and software and quantum control company. Q-CTRL has identified use cases where having 30-500 quantum error corrected qubits with the ability to handle 6000-100,000 programming steps will deliver commercially valuable services. The use cases are in supply chain and logistics. Other use case possibilities with commercial value would be in material science.
2022 State of the Art Quantum Chemistry Used 12 Qubits for 12 Atoms
An industrially relevant quantum computational advantage in quantum chemistry is expected to appear at around 38 ≤ N ≤ 68 qubits (under the assumption of error-corrected qubits), which is related to an electronic structure problem including 19 ≤ N ≤ 34 electrons.
In 2022, there is a research paper from $2 billion Trapped Ion quantum computer company IonQ. They got a new record with 12 qubits and 72 parameters. This passed Google work with 10 atoms and qubits was surpassed by this IonQ work.
The best regular supercomputers max out at about 20 simulated atoms for quantum chemistry.
This is why 100 error corrected qubits would be insanely huge. The new work also lays the ground work to getting to thousands of error corrected qubits possibly by 2030.
If we have really good quantum chemistry and material science we could find better battery chemistry for the future multi-trillion electric car industry.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.