April 03, 2016

World Energy Mix in 2035 will have more nuclear because China will build it

According to the 2016 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, launched last month, BP says world energy consumption will grow by 34% between 2014 and 2035, from 12,928 million tonnes oil equivalent (toe) to 17,307 million toe. Some 95% of this growth will come from non-OECD countries.

The global use of nuclear energy is forecast to grow by 1.9% per year from 574.0 million toe in 2014 to 859.2 million toe in 2035, which is an overall increase of 50%.

Nuclear output in the European Union and North America is expected to decline 29% and 13%, respectively, as aging reactors are gradually retired and "the economic and political challenges of nuclear energy stunt new investments". However, output in China is forecast to increase 11.2% annually. BP said Japan's nuclear output will reach 60% of its 2010 level by 2020 as reactors restart over the next five years.

Coal's share of global primary energy production is expected to drop from 30% in 2014 to 25% in 2035.

By 2035, non-fossil fuels will make up 21% of global primary energy compared with the current 14%. Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) are forecast to grow 6.6% per year, taking their share of primary energy from around 3% today to 9% by 2025.






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