Musk reiterated Tesla’s plans to launch higher volume models based on a third-generation platform. The automaker has previously mentioned two third-generation models, a small sedan and crossover, labeled by Musk as “Gen 3” models.
Speaking specifically about the Gen 3 sedan, Musk described it as costing “about half the price of the Model S” and featuring a “family resemblance” to other Tesla models (Model S pricing currently starts at $62,400). Finally, he said the Gen 3 sedan would “arrive at the end of 2016.”
Being based on Tesla’s third-generation platform design, the Gen 3 sedan will also pack some interesting new technologies. Musk hinted that it may feature “some autopilot or self-driving elements” though stressed that these may not be available in time for the launch. The Tesla boss has previously said that he views the concept of an auto-pilot for cars as something that is important to the evolution of automobiles.
The Model X will arrive in late 2014 and may be followed by additional variants based on the same second-generation platform.
Elon Musk could enable the domination of the electric car and be instrumental in the popularization of the self driving car.
The Gen-3 would be priced below $40,000 and arrive on the market within the next three to four years. He also said it would have a driving range of about 200 miles on a single charge.
The Gen 3-based sedan has previously been reported to be similar in size to a BMW 3-Series and both lighter and cheaper to produce than the current Model S.
The model X base with batteries and engines enable a lot of different models to share a common base.
This is the model S base
Payment plan for battery swapping equal to gasoline fill up could be used to lower Model S to $40000
By recouping the cost of the battery over its lifetime (charging $70 per swap, Tesla and not car buyer own the batter), Tesla would be able to sell its sedans at a lower price ($40,000) than the Audi A6 ($42,000), which would likely push annual demand past 300,000 units for the Model S alone. Assuming the average selling price of the Model S is $80,000 before deducting the savings from not purchasing the battery, Tesla would earn $960 million with a conservative 4% net income margin. At a $15 billion market cap, Tesla would have a 15.63 P/E ratio on Model S sales alone.
Batteries continue to improve at 15% per year
Technology appears to be on Tesla’s side.
Batteries are improving at 15% per year based on price performance.
Lighter weight materials also play to Tesla’s advantage.
If Tesla owns charging stations and battery swap stations and they have luxury and high mid-range buyers then they can make upscale reststops. The reststops can sell high end coffee, food and products.
Telsa can own the relationship with its highend clients which is how American Express makes its money.
Telsa will have most of the follow on sales market.
So Tesla profits will come not just from car sales but all car maintenance (how car dealers make most of their money) and from the charging that replaces the gas station (margin from food and drink sales and using the lower cost charging to lower the upfront cost if needed).
The advantages that Tesla has accumulated and will be able to leverage could propel them into the number 1 car company and possible complete domination of the car markets.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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