Only Morocco is on Track to Meet Paris Climate Agreement

Only Morocco is on track to meet a 1.5C Paris Climate Agreement according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).

The US is critically insufficient and China is insufficient. India is on track to a 2.0C-degree level.

With the release of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C the CAT updated its benchmark emissions pathways in 2018 (for more info also see here) meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal and for comparing with the former 2°C Cancun goal.

The main effect of this update is that 1.5°C-compatible levels for 2030 are lower by about 3 GtCO2e/yr.

As of December 2018, a substantial gap remains between the levels of emissions in 2025 and 2030 projected in the NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC and the lower levels that would be consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

The benchmark emissions from a 1.5°C compatible pathway are 41 GtCO2e in 2025 and 28 GtCO2e in 2030. Comparing these with the emissions from the pledges and targets submitted by December 2018, which results in total global emissions of 53–55 GtCO2e in 2025 and 54–57 GtCO2e in 2030 the CAT calculates a gap 12–14 GtCO2e in 2025 and 26–29 GtCO2e in 2030.

For comparison, the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C estimated 2030 emissions levels at 52–58 GtCO2e for NDCs, which compared to that Report’s 25–30 GtCO2e 1.5°C-compatible 2030 benchmark suggests an emissions gap of about 28 GtCO2e between the means of both these ranges.

The benchmark emissions from a 2°C compatible pathway are higher (47 GtCO2e in 2025 and 39 GtCO2e for 2030), and comparing these to the global emissions from the pledges and targets quoted above, the gap ranges between 6–9 GtCO2e for 2025 and 15–18 GtCO2e in 2030.

SOURCES- Climate Action Tracker