From January to May, total global battery consumption for electric vehicles (EVs) was 237.6 GWh, up 52.3 percent from 156.0 GWh in the same period last year, according to data released today by South Korean market research firm SNE Research. 104 GWH was installed in April and May. There was likely about 57 GWH of batteries installed in June. This would be 295 GWh of batteries installed in the first half of 2023 globally.
Tesla 920k produced cars in the first half of 2023. If the cars used an average of 75 kWh each then this would be 69 GWh of batteries. This means that Tesla used about 23.5% of the batteries in the world. Tesla also installed about 10 GWh of batteries into energy storage products like Megapacks and Powerwalls. The non-EV batteries are counted separately.
If John at Cleanerwatt is correct on Tesla 4680 production. He estimates about 2.7 GWh of batteries produced in Texas and Fremont. This would be about 1% of total world battery production for EVs.
If there is another 50% increase in EV batteries in 2024, then there should be 450 GWH of batteries produced in the first half of 2024. If Tesla produced 10 GWh of batteries in the first half of 2024 then Tesla would be making over 2% of world production. Tesla should be completing multiple production lines (three more at Texas) and lines in Berlin and China. When Tesla has sorted out production issues and ramps 5-10X the production lines then this would be when Tesla becomes a significant battery player.
Tesla should be making 1.3 to 1.5 million cars in the first half of 2024. This would be 100 GWh to 120 GWh of batteries. Tesla should move up from producing about 4% of its car battery needs to producing about 10%.
When Tesla gets up to 100 GWH/year of battery production then Tesla will be able to make $30-60 billion/year in additional production. This will likely cost Tesla about $6 billion to make and save about $2 billion in savings against CATL margins.
It costs about $30-60 million for each GWh per year of battery factory. It would be about $3-6 billion for Tesla in capital commitments to make 100 GWH/year of battery factory capacity. It would be 2-3 years to payback the battery factories for battery cost savings, but profit from increased vehicle and megapack production would be higher.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Three datapoints I’m struggling to get to agree –
1) Current global new vehicle auto market is 76MM/year, this projection is showing 90MM/yr;
2) robotaxi estimates are projected to be in the 100’s of billions, and ultimately trillions, of miles per year, which should to a considerable degree, cut into new vehicle sales;
3) Global population is stagnating and will soon be falling.
Is the global transportation market really that underserved?