There is now real world driving data on the Tesla Semi and other electric Semi trucks from the Runonless testing event. The World has a global fleet of about 30 million Semi trucks and about 3 million are purchased every year. 70% of the large and Semi trucks are bought and used in Asia. Nearly 50% are used in China.
Electric Semi trucks can operate with 1.5 to 2.5 kWh per miles. Tesla Semi gets 1.7 KWh per mile and an improved version will get 1.5 kWh per mile in a few years. Electricity at wholesale prices is 10 cents per kWh. 17 kWh for 10 miles would be $1.70. This is far less than the $5.50 for a gallon of diesel. The best diesel semi mileage is 10 mpg. Most diesel Semi have less fuel efficiency. Standard maintenance and brake pad costs will be less for an electric Semi versus a diesel. The electric vehicles do not need oil changes and they have regenerative braking. Regenerative braking recaptures electricity during downhill segments and other traditional braking situations.
Most semis have two fuel tanks. Are there exceptions? Yes. A truck use in local delivery might have only one. There are long haul trucks with four tanks. The individual tanks tend to run between 100 to 150 gallons each. Two 150 gallon tanks filled would hold 2,000 pounds of diesel fuel. Diesel Semi trucks can get 6-10 miles per gallon (miles per gallon).
Electric Semis, even the Tesla, have less range than diesel trucks. However, there are 500,000 to 1 million drayage trucks in North America and a few million global drayage trucks. There are also regional trucks like the Pepsi, Coke, Beer company, Walmart truck fleet.
The Tesla Semi with 400-500 miles of proven real world range with full North American 82000 lbs (with tractor – 26000 lbs and trailer 12000 lbs and 44,000 lbs of load) can service most drayage and regional usage situations. This would be 30-50% of the Semi truck market.
A simple way to decide if it worth seriously considering a Tesla Semi electric truck over a diesel truck. Ask a few questions:
1. Is my truck usage more profitable when the truck gets the equivalent of 20-30 mpg? What is the per gallon price of diesel vs electricity? Is a gallon of diesel more expensive than 50 kWh of electricity? If electricity is expensive is my fleet profitable by using an amortized solar and charging facility?
2. Does my truck operations still work when I need to stop for 60-90 minutes every 400 miles ?
3. Will my truck fleet be able to afford or have access to fast charging?
4. If new fast charging is needed, then is there grid power available or is a solar farm buildout economic?
5. What are the national, state and local subsidies for the electric Semi trucks? New York offers up to $185,000 for a class 8 electric truck. California (HVIP) and other starts offer huge grants. The US Federal Inflation reduction act offers $40,000 credits for Semi trucks. There are credits and tax breaks for solar and fixed energy storage projects in the 30-70% of total cost range.
NOTE: people can complain about the unfair regulations and money in favor of electric semis but a fleet owner knows this is strictly business.
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the Tesla Semi or other Tesla cars.
California Mandates for Electric Drayage Trucks Starts Phasing in 2024
California has required that new drayage trucks for ports and railyards must be electric starting in 2024. All drayage trucks must be electric by 2035.
As of December 2022, there are over 140,500 trucks in the California Drayage Truck Registry with 2010 or newer model year engines. About 51,500 are California based in-state drayage trucks. About 89,000 are out of state drayage trucks.
Approximately 33,500 drayage trucks service California’s seaports and intermodal railyards annually, of which 28,700 are trucks that visit California’s seaports and intermodal railyards an average of 2 or more times per week or 112 times per year.
Estimated number of zero-emission drayage trucks resulting from ACF (Advanced Clean Fleets) requirements; drayage trucks only and not the total number of zero-emission trucks that will result from ACF requirements:
2024: ~1,000 trucks
2025: ~3,000 trucks
2030: ~24,000 trucks
2035: ~35,000 trucks
Drayage truck fuel economy can range from 3 to 7 MPG depending on the payload and duty cycle. The fuel economy declines to 2.6 MPG when operated in a duty cycle with an average speed of below 8 mph. They are typically driven an average of 140 miles per day and they are making stops all the time.
Why would a diesel Semi truck have four or more fuel tanks? Australia allows road trains. The Semi trucks are permitted to tow up to four trailer and have a total weight of 400,000 lbs.
Comparing Tesla Semi to Other Electric Semi
This table compares the prices, ranges and payload of the different electric semi trucks. Real world results from the runonless 2023 event shows that Tesla Semi has two to four times more range than the competing electric trucks.
Diesel Versus Tesla Electric Semi weight
The unladen weight of a diesel semi-truck can vary between 10,000 and 25,000 pounds. However, the lighter diesel semi have less payload. The heavier ones have sleeper cabs. A typical class 8 diesel truck weights about 17,000 lbs. It needs about 2,100 lbs. of fuel (diesel). The engine of a diesel semi truck weighs about 2200-2900 lbs. The Tesla Semi tractor probably is about 15,000 lbs without the battery. The electric motors and electric power train are far simpler and lighter than the engine and non-engine parts of a diesel semi truck. The Tesla battery pack weighs about 10,000 lbs for the 500 mile battery and 5000 lbs for the 300 mile battery. This is 25,000 to 26,000 lbs. for the 500 mile truck. The typical diesel Semi tractor is 19,000 lbs including fuel. There is currently an 8,000 lbs weight disadvantage for the 500 mile Tesla Semi compared to a typical diesel.
I calculate the Tesla Semi 500 mile range as weighing 26,000 lbs and the 300 mile version is about 20,600-21000 lbs.
The electric EV Semis get 2000 lbs of extra max weight in North American and 4000 lbs of max weight in Europe. This is regulations where instead of 80,000 lbs max highway weight they are permitted 82,000 lbs or 84,000 lbs. It is like the 500 mile tractors weigh 24000 lbs in North America and 22000 lbs in Europe after equalizing the max weights and shorter range are 18,600 lbs and 16,600 lbs.
They don’t pay fuel taxes.
California mandates (followed by NY, NJ etc…) mean 300,000+ electric semi will be required (fleets will be forced) over the next ten years.
There are other grants and incentives in other countries as well.
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If you truly believe the Tesla semi tares in at only 26000lb I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
If it is much under 32000lb I’ll be amazed
Be amazed. Tesla had the video of the Semi moving 44,000 lbs of cement barriers for 500 miles, plus a driver and chains to hold down the barriers. 82,000 lbs max for tractor, trailer and payload. 45,000 lbs of payload (driver, chains, barriers). 37000 lbs for the tractor and trailer. 12000 lbs standard flatbed trailer. 25,000 lbs for the tractor. If the trailer only weighed 10,000 lbs then 27,000 lbs for the tractor.
Glossing over the relevant issues again, I see:
The battery life of anything straight out of the box is always significantly longer than once you’ve used it a year. So, realistically, ~300 miles? Your 60-90 minutes charge time? That’s to 80% capacity. So, sub 300? Full charge takes 3-4 hours.
Now what you’re talking about is cutting a driver’s daily mileage by close to half. Since a majority of drivers are paid by the mile, you’re really talking about slashing driver income by 30-50%. Are we going to address that?
This article acknowledged that these things carry significantly less cargo because of the additional weight of the tractor. Freight is charged by weight. Less weight, less pay.
Are we going to reevaluate the archaic hours of service regulations that were written by the railroads over 100 years ago? Or do we expect drivers to operate within the parameters that were set down with the original intention of bankrupting the trucking industry?
Commercial drivers pay tax according to how many miles they drive on each road. The “less tax” line is incredibly misleading. Uncle Sam WILL get his… they will just up the mileage tax for these things.
Every selling point in this article has holes in it.
I’m not sure why you mention it, but wholesale power is way less than 10c/kWh, even in CA.
https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/prices.html
Prices are specific to a time and location. Right now, they’re $40/MWH = 4c/kWh.
But most customers don’t have access to wholesale prices, so who cares.
Musk said, “There’s an old saying that ‘history is written by the victors,’ it’s like well, not if your enemies are still alive and have a lot of time on their hands to edit Wikipedia. The losers just got a lot of time on their hands.”
And how is that relevant here?
The Class 8 trucks I built at Freightliner ran 10,000 pounds, or less including “sleepers”. The cabs, and fuel tanks are aluminum, and large parts are steel only when needed. Weight is a big deal for buyers, since every pound of tractor, is one less pound of paying cargo it can haul.
The only trucks much heavier than 5 short tons would be those with heavy duty chassis, drive shafts, and axles used offroad, and for mining.
Sleepers are not much heavier than day cabs. The biggest difference is that day cabs have more visibility, and can turn at a greater angle since the trailer is further from the back of the cab, and the tractor chassis is shorter.
Class 8 trucks with sleeper (Freightliner, Peterbilt, volvo) 18000-19000 lbs without fuel.
https://www.maximinc.com/international-lt-comparison-guide
Show me the specification comparison of class 8 truck tractors with the low weight. I provided the link for my comparison and specs.
T 680 shows 14000 pounds with sleeper, so not very good apples to oranges considering that would be a long hauler vs Tesla’s ltl truck. But it’s pretty close
https://bigrigvin.com/kenworths-new-light-weight-t680-truck/
My 1995 W900L at 300 inches and a 74 inch studio sleeper built for Alaska full of fuel 300 gallons tares in at 21,300. I pulled double 40 ft containers to Fairbanks and back averaging 4.5 miles to the gallon.13 hour round trip.
An obvious usage of BEVs at shippers, Iike UPS is “shifters”. Usually, the class 8 tractor drops the trailer in the yard, and a relatively small shifter takes it where management wants it. These trucks have high visibility, and hydraulicly actuated hitches that can lift the trailer feet off the pavement, so the driver does not need to crank them.
These tractors never leave the yard, so are not street legal, and have only one seat. These are the first I would electrify, since they spend lots of time idling, starting, and stopping. They would need to charge when the driver was caught up, and at shift changes. For these, a good argument could be made for wireless charging where they are parked, and where they pick up loads from the on the road trucks.
Your comments above are why I think it is unnecessary for governments to mandate the use of electric vehicles.
If the costs are justified, companies and individuals are going to go electric anyway. Just like when gas powered trucks were economically justified, no law was required to make companies stop hauling cargo using horses.
Unnecessary mandates just annoy parts of the population that do not like the government trying to dictate every aspect of their lives.
It is meaningless to talk about what government should do. I am talking about what they already did. I am talking about the likely new legislation. We could say the government should balance their budget but it has not happened for 40+ years.
Fuel taxes will quickly become replaced with highway use taxes/milage taxes for electric semi trucks states such as Oregon, New York, Indiana already charge them others will simply foolow when trucks begin to electrify some early adapters may save some money in the short run but it wont last fuel taxes pay for road maintenance and without the 10 centa a mile average a truck pays in fuel taxes roads won’t get fixed.
The problem is fossil trucks is they not paying for the damages the CO² and other pollutants are doing. Like if trucks would be required to do carbon capture and not emit other pollutants similar to electric trucks I think there would not be a problem with electric trucks being adopted. Like imagine the weight and cut back on fuel efficiency such pollution control equipment would cause fossil fuels trucks. So in a way the incentives for electric trucks are really a gift to fossil fuels trucks instead of requiring them to clean up their act.
I’ve never been a Trucker, but I did build class 8 trucks, trouble shoot them, and drive them, and observed their use while working for UPS. Based on that here are my estimates of functionality.
BEV class 8 would be problematic for long haul. At the very least charge intervals, and charge times would have to fit into a single drivers rest, and work schedule, regulated by the feds. There is also a problem with finding unplanned maintenance, and repairs on the road.
At UPS, class 7 day cabs pulled trailers from hub, to hub. For trips of 8 hours or so, two trucks would meet at the midpoint, the drivers would take their lunch break, switch trucks, and drive back to their home hubs. If there were two chargers at the mid point, and the charging would fit inside the lunch break the BEV would be fabulous. Generally these trips would be on expressways at or near the speed limit, so they would take a lot of energy.
Another use of class 8 day cabs is between a hub, and a center, or a rail terminal. Generally only one hub services a center, or terminal, but there might be more than one load per day. The truck would drop off a trailer with packages, and immediately pick up one with packages going to the hub. When returning to the hub, the driver would do the same, and leave for another center. If the Truck could charge during lunch, and at the end of the shift, that would be fine. These trips would average lower speeds, and last an hour or less one way, perhaps half on expressways, so less battery capacity would be needed. The last case is taking empties, and returning package carrying trainers from large users, like factories, or warehouse/fulfillment centers. In general UPS never comes near weight limits, but trailers often are packed full.
In general, I’d say 300 mile usable range, and ability to charge that in 45-50 minutes would make a truck useful for all the things UPS uses them for.