I, Brian Wang, will be talking with Warren Redlich and @Anything Tesla about the Next Great Power. China vs USA vs India.
I will be making a case for ASEAN and Canada. We will discuss demographics, immigration-emigration and people, money and technology.
I would say that China is already a Great Power. We will have to discuss the definition. China has about 65-70% of US GDP on a nominal basis and 120% of US GDP on PPP basis. China is the largest trading partner for most of the surrounding Asian countries.
Great power: In historical mentions, the term great power refers to the states that have strong political, cultural and economical influence over nations around them and across the world.
The EU has political, economic and diplomatic influence over nations around them.
Starts at 8:10 PM PST.
— nextbigfuture (@nextbigfuture) September 20, 2023
Here is a comparison of the GDP of the Allied and Axis powers in WW2.
Germany had about half of the USA but was ahead of both the UK and the Soviets.
Japan has one-fifth of the US economy but was militarily competitive from 1940 to 1944.
We will also need to discuss the future next great power from an AI dominated future and from a future with anti-aging.
The scenarios need to look at a future with mainly economic competition and one where there is military confrontation.
USA and Allies vs USSR on a PPP (Purchasing power parity) GDP basis.
The USSR was about 30% to 45% of the USA on a PPP GDP basis from 1950 to 1975.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Anti-ageing could play a big role. I recently wondered what would actually happen if/when there is any success on that front. The research might go dark until the powers-that-be decide how best to use it strategically. After all, why let everyone have this remedy when it could be used to empower your own nation and as a carrot for cooperation from other nations?
Anti-aging? When billionaires stop dying, we will know it is out there. Bet on the money, not the government’s secret agencies. Western countries can’t keep big secrets, someone always finds a reason to leak them.
Meanwhile, consider owning a clinic, or even part of one, that old people could check into, and then emerge from as a biological twenty year old just a few months later. Could there ever be anything in history so easily monetized? Could there be anything in history more likely to be monetized? Especially as the owners would want to realize an economy of scale to minimize the cost of their own treatments and maximize profitability. And if some countries don’t wish to allow them sufficient rein to do so? They will set up in countries that will allow them to operate with less restrictions, and trust to medical tourism to bring them clients.
The question will be the cost. Church said something about making it a recurring vaccine, or possibly a one-time genetic therapy. That would be interesting, but I think that form might be a long time (a very long time) coming. Alternatively, it could cost a million dollars a year (or more) and, if that is a realistic cost-based price, it would be a pretty limited market. Assuming there is no discount for a couple, and barring any potential windfalls in the interim, my wife and I would probably have to be in our early 90s before we could afford it on an annual basis. So close . . .
Assume, however, that it was a recurring charge each day that cost no more than a fancy caffeine-loaded drink at Starbucks. I’d buy it for everyone I cared about (and who would accept it). I think most people in the world’s wealthier countries could, assuming that all of them prioritized it, wanted it, and didn’t keep forgetting about it or procrastinating. But for the vast majority of the world’s population? Nope, just their own local elite overlords would be getting it. And if history is any guide, the disenfranchised would just accept that was the way of things.
In China? Xi would get it. Would he allow it to his toadies, the ones that might someday challenge him, to get it? He might, as a loyalty reward, and then arrange to periodically purge them for corruption, later (Putin would have them defenestrated or poisoned). Would the billionaires, like Jack Ma get ant-aging? I rather expect they would have round-the-clock handlers to keep them from getting it. Probably with some hostages held or threatened to further ensure compliance. An immortal billionaire (eventually trillionaire, quadrillionaire, and more) would be a terrible threat to a supreme leader. Can’t have that. But the Xi record for good governance is such that I remain unconvinced he can even keep power for one natural lifetime, let alone an extended one.
In short, I don’t think extended lifespans of the leadership will be a gamechanger in countries becoming superpowers unless it increases the incentives for long-term planning, but even that would be across the board.
China is a regional power. It is not a superpower. Potential superpowers of the future might include Russia, China, India, the EU, Brazil, India, the Caliphate, but there are many reasons why none of these might reach that status this century, if ever.
The major disappointment on that list might well be China. Despots in general tend to focus on displaying their strengths, yet hide their weaknesses, often to the point where all they do is hide them, never address them. And they do build up over time. And Xi may be the greatest single despot in human history. China has a great many ongoing disasters (mostly self-inflicted) that are seldom, if ever, reported on, and typically misrepresented when they are.
Meanwhile, most people just don’t do sufficient diligence to understand the enormous gulf between the way China tries to display itself, and the perfect storm of crises that are all coming due after 70 years of being swept under various rugs. Providing they can seriously change their government into something completely unlike what it is, they may (or may not) be able to recover substantially within 60 or 70 years, albeit, as a much less populous sort of place in any case.
cannot agree more, when you examine china from outside of it’s state run media, you’ll notice the tiger is made of paper.