Markets and Future Costs of Superconducting Magnets and Superconducting Wire

Present-day volume prices of HTSs (high temperature superconducting) wire and tape range from $150 to $200/kA-m (kiloAmps per meter). Many analyses of the commercial viability of superconducting applications show that a conductor cost of $50/kA-m (kiloAmps per meter) is the tipping point for widespread application for electric power use. Jun 2023, Journal Science The prospects of high-temperature superconductors.

Compact fusion reactors from Commonwealth Fusion, tokomak energy and others is increasing the demand for superconducting wire and tapes from hundreds of kilometers per year to thousands. The Commonwealth Fusion Sparc reactor will need 10,000 kilometers of 4 millimeter superconducting wire.

This tenfold increase in demand will soon reduce the cost of wire to $100/kA-m. There is a long range projecting that large volume demand could reduce the cost of superconducting wire of the current types to $10/kA-m.

In January 2023, Tokamak Energy has signed an agreement with leading Japanese and United States companies to supply specialist high temperature superconducting (HTS) tape for its new advanced prototype fusion device, ST80-HTS.

Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan and SuperPower Inc, New York, USA of Furukawa Electric Group, are expected to deliver more than several hundred kilometres of tape to the Oxford-based company for the next phase of construction. ST80-HTS will be the world’s first high field spherical tokamak using HTS magnets at scale and will utilise HTS tape developed and supplied by Furukawa Electric Group. This is a key stage in the path to Tokamak Energy’s fusion pilot plant which will demonstrate the capability to deliver clean electricity into the grid in the early 2030s, producing up to 200 MW of net electrical power.

SuperPower is a subsidiary of Furukawa.

Here is a paper on the different types of high temperature superconducting wire.

The Department of Energy had a study to speed up the availability of advanced superconductors. Here is the report on Business models to assure availability of advanced superconductors for the accelerator sector and promote stewardship of superconducting magnet technology for the US economy.

Existing Commercial markets for magnets using accelerator-sector conductors
Magnetic resonance imaging: The MRI global market had a 2021 estimated value of $4.8 billion with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%, with the CAGR of the $250M China sector being as high as 10%. MRI systems are predominantly 1.5 T magnets with some 3 T magnets, with research systems reaching to 11 T on body and 17 T on the coils. The National Academies identifies 20 T MRI of the human head as a grand challenge.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy: NMR spectroscopy is an essential tool to probe structure and function of molecules in biology and chemistry. HF and UHF NMR systems provide structural information about proteins and diseases, as well as the structural and functional response to pharmaceuticals. NMR is also essential for understanding bonding, structure, and dynamics in advanced materials for applications such as sensing and quantum information. Since resolution improves at a rate faster than linear with magnetic field increase, UHF systems enable access to information not possible to obtain by other means, which creates opportunities for high return on investment. The global market is estimated at $925 million with a CAGR of 3.5%. Higher growth is forecast for the $235 million market portion related to HF and UHF systems. At present, Bruker Biospin is the only supplier of 800 MHz to 1.2 GHz systems with 18.8 T to 28.3 T fields that sell for $2M to $15M or higher.

Accelerated particle therapy: Proton and carbon ion irradiation has gained acceptance for its “magic bullet” properties, by which cancerous tissue can be destroyed with negligible impact on surrounding tissue. Therapy systems are more prevalent in Europe than in the United States. A therapy system requires a beamline of protons to be guided by magnets, and cyclotrons to generate and accelerate the particles.

Superconducting cyclotrons using high field magnets can be compact and lightweight enough to permit retrofit of existing urban hospital space, which is a competing business model to greenfield sites with larger low-field cyclotron and guiding magnets. The global market is expected to scale from $677M in 2022 to over $1B by 2027 according to Ion Beam Applications (IBA) in Belgium, representing a CAGR of 8.2%.

Mevion Inc., in Boston, produces leading-edge technology with 50 employees and a market revenue of $80M. IBA identifies present operations of 250 therapy rooms and a need for 2500 additional rooms in Europe alone. Cost of operations and cost of therapy presently obstruct this potential market.

High-field measurements systems for academic research: Researchers in academia and labs operate thousands of research systems to probe behavior of small samples in magnetic fields and other environments. Revenue reports from Quantum Design (San Diego) and Oxford Instruments (U.K.) indicate that the size of the market for scientific instruments with superconducting magnets is about $300M annually. A 25 T measurement system, which is a current goal of product development, might sell for $2.5-5.0 million.

Potentially disruptive commercial markets

Fusion: In the absence of fossil fuels and nuclear fission for large scale electricity generation, fusion and hydroelectric become the choices for multi-GW centralized electricity production. Tokamak fusion reactors rely heavily upon advanced superconductors, and there are presently two pathways. The first pathway has been developed using high-field magnets operating in helium at 4–5 K. ITER, presently under construction and scheduled for burning plasma experiments in the 2030s, required 600 tons of Nb3Sn conductor of a different architecture and lower capability than the conductors used by the accelerator sector. An envisioned DEMO reactor for pilot-scale power production could require 2,400 tons of conductor after 2040, with a conductor cost alone of over $4 billion using present costs.

The second pathway envisions using REBCO conductors operating at 20 K and reaching to much higher fields, 20 T. This pathway takes advantage of scaling factors to reduce the size and potentially the cost of a power plant. The $4.8 billion global private investment in REBCO-based fusion during 2021 envisions electricity production for about $0.025 per kW-hr, which is a factor of ~2 lower than investment in renewables (e.g. wind at the present $0.05/kW-hr) for the equivalent energy production.

Conductor manufacturing has scaled from less than 1 ton/yr to over 3 tons/yr over the past 5 years to meet fusion demand, with scaling foreseen toward over 50 tons/yr. Information publicly available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that electricity generation in 2019 was about 4.2 trillion kW-hr with a market of approximately $1.4 trillion.

Wind turbines: Wind turbines represent the leading edge of a broader market in rotating machinery and transportation, which includes generators, motors, ship propulsion, aircraft propulsion, and linear motors in rail transportation. Challenges accompany the use of superconducting magnets for time-changing fields, and the low frequency, less than 10 RPM, of turbine rotation presents the lowest technology requirement. General Electric are presently in pilot development of 15 MW class turbines that represent a replacement of permanent magnet systems. Approximately 200 tons of conductor would be required per GW of generating capacity.

If REBCO or other HTS materials can be used to generate 6 T field coils at ~30 K to attain 2.5 T or higher across the air gap, then potential to transform the market arises because the power output of a turbine roughly doubles compared to what can be attained with iron or permanent magnets, but the mass of nacelle on top of the tower stays roughly constant, thereby undercutting the present generator mass-on-tower scaling, 20+ tons/MW, and ameliorating a fundamental technology roadblock. The global wind turbine market stands at $85 billion in 2022 and will nearly double by 2030 with a CAGR of 6.3%. Total wind power capacity exceeded 700 GW in 2022 and is expected to exceed 2 TW by 2030. Most growth will be in offshore turbines, where economics favor spending capital to achieve the highest power per tower that is deployable.

Summary
The return on investment to the US economy for a $1 billion science facility operating over a 20-year lifetime can be expected to be $10-$20 billion, which alone covers an investment of $400 million in the R&D programs under scenarios 3 and 4. Additional hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in return is possible by enhancing existing industries in the U.S. and making it more competitive to on-shore elements of large multi-national companies.

SuperPower Inc., Glenville NY, could greatly benefit from manufacturing improvements to scale from ~200 km annual sales worth $8 million to ~5,000 km annual sales worth $150 million by 2030. This would see prices go from $40,000 per kilometer of superconducting wire go to $30,000 per kilometer.

Proposed Baseline roadmap:
The revised MDP and CPRD roadmaps lay out magnet technology and conductor development goals over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time. Under baseline funding these goals become readily achievable, including the outcomes below:
By 2 years:
* Multiple designs of advanced Nb3Sn advance through research and development stages
* Questions associated with Bi-2212 raw powder production are answered, leading to powder specifications and reliable quality assurance.
* CPRD builds a wire inventory that supports magnet development without supply chain delay. CPRD’s wire characterization data are publicly accessible.
* CPRD works out accounting methods to provide conductor from its inventory to companies as a strategic reserve when supply chains are especially difficult. For example, CPRD could release conductor from inventory when provided a contract for conductor manufacture that replenishes the inventory from the industrial partner.
* Multiple manufacturers eligible for procurement under rules for use of public funds begin to supply Nb3Sn conductor.
* REBCO round cables are sourced from multiple vendors in lengths long enough for test magnets.
* REBCO conductors are purchased from multiple manufacturers and characterized to understand the potential for transformation away from round-wire conductors.
* Commercial magnet builders set up agreements to use large infrastructure, testing facilities, and expertise at national laboratories and universities.
* Funding agencies work out how to award grants to universities for ~5 years to better support PhDs.
* Potential risks and benefits of helium-free magnet technologies in the accelerator sector are assessed

In 5 years:
* MDP finds the practical limits of Nb3Sn magnets with present RRP conductor. The requirements for advanced Nb3Sn, which is needed to extend the practical limits, are solidified.
* Nb3Sn cables and magnets using conductor from multiple manufacturers are made and tested.
* Advanced Nb3Sn conductors can be purchased in 40 kg full billets. Performance variations may be wide.
* Bi-2212 conductors can be delivered in 20 kg batches with performance variations less than 10%. Procurements have option to use a specification and quality plan.
* Viability of Bi-2212 for accelerator and commercial magnets is established. A hybrid magnet is made with a Bi-2212 insert and a Nb3Sn or Nb-Ti outsert.
* Viability of REBCO round cables for accelerator magnets is established. Field homogeneity measurements are reported for the first magnets.
* Fusion companies work with the accelerator sector routinely for magnet, cable, and conductor testing.

In 10 years:
* MDP demonstrates a 16 T dipole using advanced Nb3Sn.
* MDP demonstrates a 20 T hybrid dipole using HTS.
* Advanced Nb3Sn and Bi-2212 are available as full production conductors with quality plans and specifications. Orders depend on magnet pull.
* Scale round REBCO cables toward pre-production, depending on magnet pull.

Older Superconducting Wire and Tap Research Project

Difficult and precise work is needed to get improvements in current and to speed up manufacturing and reduce costs.

A 2017-2020 superconducting wire research project.