6 Months for Tesla to Have Fully Ramped 4680 Battery Lines

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Giga Texas made their 20 millionth 4680 cell. This comes just 4 months after Tesla built its 10 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas.

Limiting Factor says. -As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the second image:  It looks they’re increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and Jordan’s guess of 20 million cells by October was spot on.
If the rest of my assumptions are correct, that equates to about a 5.13 GWh/yr run rate, which is about 20-30% more than a typical battery line…  

This would also mean with 21% improvement per month then 3 months to double and about 6 months to reach 20-25 GWh/line. The lines at Austin are capable of 20-25GWh/line. This would be full ramped production so we can make multiple lines by copying equipment and proceses. 

-5.13GWh is based on an assumption of 4.5 million cells per month at ~95 Wh/cell. 
-95Wh/cell includes the 10% energy density increase Drew mentioned in the last earnings call.  
-A ~5GWh run rate, or 4.5 million cells per month, is more than enough to ramp the Cybertruck…  
-Depending on pack size, that could support a run rate of 25-50k Cybertrucks per year.    
-At this point, it looks like Tesla probably has an excess of cells for the C/T ramp.  Hopefully that means they can start ramping the Semi or start converting Model Y or Model 3 to the 4680.

100 GWh per year needs 85 million cells per month.
21 million cells per month per line.

Tesla needs to start and bring 20 lines to full production. This would be started before the 6 month technical ramp of the first line. There is equipment to install and staff to train. In 6-9 months, Tesla would have a 500 GWH/year runrate. 420 million cells per month by replicating the lines.

20 lines (25 GWH/year line) for 500 GWH/year
40 lines (25 GWH/year line) for 1000 GWH/year

Each 4 line batch of 100 GWh/year is about $2-3B of capex but used in $40-60B of products for revenue per year. Unleashing $40-60 billlion of capex to unlock the $800-1200 billion per year of truly unlimited batteries.

15 thoughts on “6 Months for Tesla to Have Fully Ramped 4680 Battery Lines”

  2. 10 millions is enough for less than 10000 cybertrucks. 4 months that is 30000 per year. They need 20x or more volume per year just for the cybertruck. Still far away.

  3. What is Tesla’s stated investment plan with respect to batteries? Do they plan to invest 2-3 billion in battery manufacturing per year? The battery investment will cap the battery ramp to whatever they are spending, after the initial four lines have been ramped.

  4. We had a brand new 1970 Ford Maverick, $2495.00. Christmas Eve, the car had less than 1000 miles. The family was celebrating in the living room and noticed some strange flickering light shining thru our picture window. Dad opened the curtain to find out what the light was and saw the Maverick engine compartment was on-fire in our driveway. We opened the door and ran out side in the freezing weather without coats,(North Dakota) opened the hood and threw snow on the engine compartment with our hands until it was extinguish. It turned out that the fire was caused by a defective part and a recall was done after the fact.
    I know people that have set fire to their cars for insurance money. The car loan papers rub against the insurance paper work and POOF.

  5. Lithium batteries are a fire hazard. We have all seen dozens of videos of Tesla fires. When the insurance companies catch on your auto and home insurance premiums will cost you more than the price of an electric/hybrid car even if your house does not burn down.

    • Rubbish about fires look at the actual stats rather than dozens out of MILLIONS of Teslas catch fire therefore ALL Teslas catch fire, Tesla / Battery cars are 19 times less likely than petrol to catch fire

      • The significant difference is ICE’s catch fire due to poor maintenance and because the operator ignored his warning gauge. ICE’s catch fire during operation while the operator is behind the wheel. ICE’s do not spontaneously combust in the garage in the middle of the night while you are sleeping, nor while parked beside something valuable and flammable.

        • That’s not entirely accurate. Ford vehicles were taking part in a a self immolation ritual just a handful of years ago, from always energized cruise control relays that would overheat and create a middle of the night Roman candle in the garage. Poof. Instant home fire. And just two weeks ago, Hyundai/Kia issued a recall for 3 million vehicles, as a fluid leak from the antilock braking system would cause an electrical fire. Hyundai/Kia, as Ford before it, recommended all vehicles be parked outside until repairs were completed. The per capita fires of ICE vs EVs can’t even be compared. Gas cars go up in smoke much more often.

        • Seriously, do you think people around here don’t keep up with current events, especially us car guys not keeping up with car news? Just last week or so Kia and Hyundai recalled over three million cars from spontaneous fire risk. They told owners to park outside away from structures.

        • To KGB
          The significant difference is blah blah blah
          NO
          The significant difference is that’s the thing that YOU think is `significant` you choose to ignore that you are 1900% more likely to be in a fire in a ICE car than electric, why? because apparently by your assertion that’s not significant

          Oh and for your info I have been behind the wheel of a ICE car, no warnings when it caught fire, obviously with me in it and my twins strapped in baby seats in the back, no big deal no one hurt and I have never had it again.

          Fires in ICE and EVs is a non issue .. FULL STOP.

          • ” you are 1900% more likely to be in a fire in a ICE car than electric, why?”

            I’d venture to guess that it’s because you’re about 10,000% more likely to be in an ICE car, because 99% of the rolling stock is still ICE. Why did YOU think it was?

            Still, fair enough, I have had an ICE car catch fire while I was driving it. A really old, badly maintained beater, back in the 70’s. The fuel pump broke and sprayed the engine compartment with gasoline.

            I shut off the engine, coasted to a stop, and threw open the hood, and after a minute the fire went out. Try putting out a battery fire that easily.

            • No, the risk is per hour of usage. Electric cats simply have lower risk of catching fire per hour. The risk of battery fire is greatly exaggerated

              • After chewing on that extension cord the odds of my electric cat catching fire went up to 100%. The smell was thoroughly unpleasant.

            • As someone else stated NO that’s risk per 100,000 vehicles, did you REALLY think insurance companies etc were such stats come from didn`t adjust for sample size? OF COURSE you have to account for such numbers to accurately assess risk.

              However the relative difficulty is extinguishing a battery v petrol fire in a car is a valid point and should be noted, fires are much less likely but also much stronger in a pure EV, Hybrids are actually more likely to catch fire than either petrol or EV cars (tesla only sells pure EVs)

        • ICE vehicles also catch fire when parked Recently a ship loaded with about 3000 cara of which about 500 ware EVs Every story on the new stated A EV was the likely cause. Later when the ship was towed to port The EVs were removed non had fire damage. The fire started 3 decks below were only gas cars were parked. I have also seen a home garage that had sever fire damage due to and ICE car parked inside About once every 15 minutes there is car fire somewhere in the US. The vast majority of these fires are ICE vehicles. And 90% never make the news. However if 1 EV catches fire it makes the national news.

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