The official IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Nuclear energy forecast, which gets insider information on all of the funded nuclear energy projects and national programs, has increased its 2050 projections low-medium and high cases by about 12%. Europe has to get reliable energy and cannot use Russian oil and gas. This has led to an upward revision of the low case by 14% and of the high case by about 2% compared with the 2022 edition of this publication. Relative to a global nuclear operable electrical generating capacity of 371 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) in 2022, the low case projections indicate that world nuclear capacity will increase modestly to 458 GW(e). In the high case, world nuclear capacity is expected to more than double to 890 GW(e) by 2050.
In the high case scenario of the new outlook, nuclear installed capacity is seen more than doubling by 2050 to 890 GWe, compared with the current 369 GWe. In the low case, capacity increases to 458 GWe. Compared with last year’s outlook, the high and low cases have risen by 2% and 14%, respectively.
In 2021, the IAEA revised up its projections for the first time since the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan. Since the 2020 outlook, the high case projections to 2050 have now increased by 178 GWe, a 24% increase. The report’s low case projections have seen even higher growth of about 26%.
Climate change mitigation is a key driver for maintaining and expanding the use of nuclear power. According to the IEA, the use of nuclear power has avoided about 70 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions over the past 50 years. This was about 3 full years of global emissions reduced over the 50 years.
74% of final energy consumption is fossil fuels, but this does not include the 60% of electricity generated from fossil fuels. 20% of final energy is electricity. It is about 86% of energy production from fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels for transportation and energy creates air pollution which kill about 4 million people a year. There is another 3 million deaths from indoor air pollution for cooking and heating in the developing world.
This 2050 energy forecast has not taken into account that energy demand could skyrocket to support massive AI data centers. Currently, regular data centers and bitcoin mining have grown to about 20% of North American electricity usage. If AI is as profitable and valuable as it appears then this could multiply the need for electricity by 2050.
Nuclear Power Development in 2022
● At the end of 2022, 411 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a total net installed power capacity of 371 GW(e).
● In addition, 58 reactors with a total capacity of 59.3 GW(e) were under construction, and 27 reactors with a total capacity of 22.8 GW(e) were in suspended operation.
● Six new nuclear power reactors with a total capacity of 7.4 GW(e) were connected to the grid, and five reactors with a total capacity of 3.3 GW(e) were retired. Construction began on eight new reactors that are expected to add a total capacity of 9.3 GW(e).
● Compared with 2021, total electricity production from all energy sources increased by about 2% and electricity production from nuclear power reactors decreased about 4% to 2 545 TW∙h.
● Nuclear power accounted for 9.2% of total electricity production in 2022, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year.
● The reduction in global electricity demand in 2020 was the biggest annual decline since the mid-20th century. In 2022 global electricity consumption and the total energy consumption rebounded and exceeded levels for 2019.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Not so sure it’s a great idea to jump on the green-energy bandwagon if your technology is wildly non-competitive. Also, CO2 does not control the climate and mankind cannot control the planet’s CO2 levels. As that reality becomes painfully obvious, using “climate emergency” as a marketing ploy will be a poor long-term strategy.
Nuclear’s value lies more with energy security, provided the technology is reasonably competitive. Attempting to sell exotic and stunningly expensive physics experiments is unlikely to be commercially successful in the long run. However, in the short run, certainly can get a lot of subsidy money from the tax payers.
That’s nothing, a drop in the bucket. The world is currently adding a hundred GW of wind and 200 GW of solar annually and this numbers keep increasing. Probably all non fossil generation forecast has been going up due to Russia market closing. This is a classic example of someone that falls into wishful thinking.
[ Yes, but think of a natural disaster (or reasonable areal disturbance, considering energy for safety measures/replacement production/repair/reconstruction) affecting big surface areas, that might even only occur once a 100yrs (statistically), but within a shorter period, unexceptionally multiple times (drought, fire, storm, rain/flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption (or desert particles with wind transport, small meteorite, cosmic event) )
There is expected to be a share of (some kind of) nuclear power supply ~2050 (possibly stagnates on ~3.5% for primary energy consumption(~27EJ*277=~7450TWh), half of almost stagnating (without big projects on ocean water power plants, e.g. RF) water power construction(~47EJ), renewables from a ~97EJ(2025) to maybe ~247EJ, declining coal/oil to ~103/154EJ, and increasing (fossil) gas to ~181EJ), ~720EJ_~200000TWh_2050?
‘https://www.statista.com/statistics/222066/projected-global-energy-consumption-by-source/’ ]
Yeah. That is called ‘mal-investment’.
It’s as bad as the ghost cities in China, too.
How many of these 411+ reactors are MSRs?
How many of the 6 reactors tied to the grids in 2023 are MSRs?
How many of the 58 reactors under construction are MSRs?
Tell me again why MSRs are needed? They’re supposed to be cheap, right? They’re supposed to make a lot of things better, right?
This article comes 48 hours after an article that all the grids are going bye-bye because solar and tesla batteries making the cost of power nil.
Meanwhile without the inflation act’s production tax credit, the utilities would be under water operating long paid-off assets.
If we’re satisfied with moderate growth of nuclear, then sure, we don’t need MSRs.
If we want to build thousands of reactors, then we do need MSRs, or something else with similar advantages.
MSRs are good backups for Wind & Solar Farms..the battery ideas were put to rest (cost + maintenance)
This combo, matches low carbon goals with Hydro & Wind/Solar.
They’d manufactured delivered & hooked up to a secondary steam plant system, driving a turbine. Easy to refuel, replace, or just dispose of.
OBTW- 50 year NUV experience talking here (USN, DOE, Utilities & University)…Ops, Maintenance, Management, Teaching, Govt…Degreed, Licensed, NUC Services Company Owner.
92 nuclear reactors in the USA. https://pris.iaea.org/pris/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=US
VOGTLE-3 started in 2023, Watts-Bar-2 2016, VOGTLE-4 under construction. Comanche peak-2 started in 1993. A couple started in 1990. 1970-1989 was the main construction.
Over 70% of the U.S. electricity grid is more than 25 years old.
Over 90% of the US nuclear reactors are over 30 years old.
CFR600 was a sodium pooled gen IV fast neutron reactor.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
The new reactors are mainly being built in China, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, India, Egypt
China has a mostly new energy grid, South Korea’s grid is newer as well
molten salt is coming but it is new projects. Older technology is built and used for projects that were funded and started 5-10 years ago.
[ “Over 90% of the US nuclear reactors are over 30 years old.”
What’s the plan for backup (given those are capable for ~50(-60?)yrs durability/suitability, including revisions and upgrades?) for these nuclear reactors? ]
Let’s hope Brazil invests in nuclear. It’s ridiculos for such a large country to have so few nuclear. Too much reliance on hydro, which depends on climatic factors, and the climate is swinging more than ever, and several times in the past 2 decades Brazil had HIGH PIKES in electrical price to consumers and industry because the hydro system was under capacity due to droughts.
“climate is swinging more than ever”
is this your own anecdote or per some UN report baselined to 100 years of known statistics?
Every decade starts with projections that Brazil will get its act together, and it never does.
Maybe someday Brazil will come out ahead in a major world war and we’ll have the century of Brazil – goodness knows they are blessed with everything they need resource and demographic-wise.