CATL is the world’s largest battery maker and CATL battery factories are operating at 70% of capacity to produce about 200 GWH/year of batteries. Tesla needs 100 GWh/year of batteries to bring its second Megapack line in its Lathrop factory and two new Megapack factories in China up to full production. This would be 120 GWH/year from three fully ramped Megapack factories. This would be seven times the production of the current Lathrop Megapack line running at about 80-90% capacity. This would be $55 billion per year in revenue and about $16 billion per year in profit.
If the electric car market is still hindered by a global recession, then stable utility demand for fixed energy storage could become the majority of Tesla profits in 2024-2025.
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There is a very large potential market for utility-scale battery storage. Tesla is one of the few large players in that market. It could prove very profitable for them.
Lithium batteries are a fire hazard for homes, businesses, and vehicles. So what is the market?
The megapaack is a large (truck size) battery designed for industrial or utility energy stoarage. It is it is not placed in a building. Teslaesla power wall) does all a smaller batter (tesla power wall) for homes or small business. it can be installed in a garage or outside mounted on a wall. They have produced 500,000 of these and have had only one fire.
The fire was put out in 10 minutes but the box continued to smoke. It was removed from the home opened and finally extinguished. The garage has a sprinkler system installed and that kept the fire contained until the fire department arrived. The wall was charged but that was it. Damage was $20,000 which is about the cost of replacement power wall. Home prinker systems are now mandatory for new homes in california.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi1_8-Fwp6CAxW3ADQIHdJdCOkQFnoECCYQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressdemocrat.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Ffire-causing-20000-in-damage-to-santa-rosa-home-originated-in-tesla-in-wa%2F&usg=AOvVaw26gudDP0XYvo1WCWAxAX1j&opi=89978449
EV battery fires are very rare in the US. About 50 a year. gas car fires however are common. About 300 a day in the US.
The cost of the megapack would pay my electricity for >35 years.
Lithium ion batteries are indeed a (small) fire hazard, but Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) are safe. It is these batteries which are already used for storage.
With the battery glut and the backlog in megapack I was hoping to see the business grow much faster. But from the numbers above, energy generation and storage revenue is almost flat from q1 to q3. Maybe it’s because of deferred revenue but hoping to see a big increase for q4
You tried pushing this nonsense last week. Do you remember the pummeling your received when you were corrected of your biased falsehoods?
What the hell are you talking about?
Tesla Megapacks made in China are apparently intended for export only, because they’re not price competitive with other Chinese brands of grid storage.
(CATL themselves also have their line of grid battery products)
Big competitors include Sungrow, Fluence etc).
So Tesla should expect competition for sourcing battery cells.
So, i dob’t think its certain Tesla can even source 100GW of cells.
And I believe the chinese megapack factories aren’t built yet, let alone scaled.
yes, Tesla megapack factories would have to built and then scaled.