When Will China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Be Ready?

The F-35 first flew in 2006. It entered service with the U.S. Marine Corps in July 2015, the U.S. Air Force in August 2016, and the U.S. Navy in February 2019. The F-35 fleet is the second largest in the Air Force inventory, after the F-16. As of April 2022, the American military had purchased 796 F-35s. The US has had stealth bombers and the F-22 stealth fighter for over a decade before the F-35.

The US has over thirty years of experience operating, using and maintaining stealth fighters and bombers. The US uses the stealth fighters and stealth bombers far less than the non-stealth planes. They are more costly to fly and much more difficult to maintain. Getting them actually usable with operating software and sensor fusion is not easy.

In 2015, the F-35 was tested without its full sensor fusion system and all of its advanced targeting software. The F-35 performed terribly without it full software and targeting capabilities. In 2019, the F-35 was tested against F16 and other non-stealth planes and did great in tests. The full software means that the F-35 does not have to be pointed at the target, missiles can be fired without getting lined up. This means that all of the advanced stealth planes (US, China, Russian, and other) will be highly dependent on high functioning complex software.

The F-117 was the main US stealth plane before the F-35 and F-22. It widely publicized for its role in the Gulf War of 1991, having flown approximately 1,300 sorties and scored direct hits on what the US called 1,600 high-value targets in Iraq. F-117s also participated in the conflict in Yugoslavia, during which one was shot down by a surface-to-air missile (SAM) in 1999. There was only one operational variant F-117A. F-117s saw extensive combat use, from the incursion into Panama in 1989 through the Persian Gulf War of 1990–91 to the Iraq War of 2003–11. The only combat loss took place in 1999, during the Kosovo conflict. The F-117 was retired in stages between 2006 and 2008.

The F-22 was operational in Dec, 2005, but it is virtually never used in actual combat. The US used the F-22 to shoot down the China spy balloon recently.

In 2021-2022 in the Middle East, 42 F-35As flew 1,319 sorties, delivered 352 precision-guided weapons and fired 3,774 rounds from their canon systems.

The US still does not have its repair depots and repair systems built out to support the F-35s. It was taking 172 days for repairs and there were large backlogs of repairs. There are some contractor and contract issues that are unique to the US and F-35 supply chain but there are also more complexities with the software, components and stealth coating.

The J-20 is a twin-engine, fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft. It was the first operational stealth aircraft in Asia. The J-20’s first test flight was on January 11, 2011. It entered service in 2017, and began serving in large numbers in 2018.

China is changing engines for the third time for the J-20. They started with a Russian engine and the switched to a China made WS10 and now a new China made WS15. The WS-15 based on some specs could get the J-20 into the jet engine performance range of the F-22 and F-35. However, China quotes an air based engine thrust number which is likely 20% more favorable than the ground based spec for US engines. This means the US engines are still better. The other aspect is that actual combat performance is more software and sensor dependent. There is also the training of pilots and maintenance of the planes.

I think in the ideal situations, the US or China with working stealth planes could use them like the US used the F-117A. They can pound on enemies without a lot of modern radar and a lot of surface to air missiles.

The US still will vastly outnumber China in terms of working and flying stealth planes in any direct conflict. I don’t think China will be able to get their J-20s really operational until they have the new engines and have pilots trained on J-20s with the new engines. This seems like it would be 2026 at the earliest with about 500 J-20s. There would likely only be 150-250 J-20s that would be able to fly missions at any one time. The US will have half of their 2000 F-35s able to fly and perform missions.

7 thoughts on “When Will China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Be Ready?”

  1. yep, the headlines were almost exactly the same, media and opposing governments love to tout bad news on our military projects, but are strangely silent on their success.

  2. The F 35 has been a Trillion dollar disaster.
    Google these headlines just THIS YEAR

    Sept 21, 2023
    a government watchdog report highlights ongoing maintenance delays showing F-35 fighter jets are only “mission capable” 55% of the time

    July 26, 2023
    US F-35 drops to 50 aircraft produced per year,
    China’s J-20 jumps to 120+

    July 20
    Lockheed delivery numbers falter as Pentagon stops accepting new F-35s

    July 20, 2023
    Lockheed Risks $400 Million Payment Delay Until It Shows New F-35 Software Works

    July 12, 2023
    US F-35 production shortfalls favor China, Russia

    June 13, 2023
    Latest F-35s Will Go Directly Into Storage Until Upgrade Woes Ironed Out

    June 14, 2023
    Fund the New F-35 Engine—If Only to Keep Industrial Base Humming, Lawmaker Says

    June 13, 2023
    Pentagon to halt upgraded F-35 deliveries in July amid software woes
    .

    May 2023
    Russian Su-30 used electronic warfare system while intercepting the F-35
    .

    May 31, 2023
    Auditors: Over 1 million F-35 spare parts lost by DoD and Lockheed

    .
    May 30, 2023
    F-35 Jet’s Overworked Engines May Cost Pentagon $38 Billion in Upkeep.

    May 24, 2023
    F-35 Program Completes Band-Aid Fix for Engine
    .
    May 23, 2023
    US Air Force wants to avoid
    the kinds of “acquisition malpractice” F-35 mistakes on sixth-gen fighter

    .
    May 23, 2023
    South Korea’s F-35A Lightning II, could be headed to the boneyard due to exorbitant costs of repair
    After a bird hit that resulted in massive damage.

    .
    April 1, 2023
    F-35 Stealth Fighters Only 53% Ready For China War; Its Combat Operations Hindered By ‘F135’ Issues

    .
    March 31, 2023
    Lockheed F-35 jet’s crucial software upgrade may take another year

    .
    March 30, 2023
    F-35 Engine Running Too Hot Due To ‘Under-Speccing,’ Upgrade Now Vital

    March 29, 2023
    Pentagon Says Only Half of Its F-35 Jet Fleet Is Mission-Ready

    March 27, 2023
    “F” Stands for Failure:
    the F-35 fighter jet program is a trillion-dollar boondoggle.
    .
    March 2, 2023
    F-15E Strike Eagle flies more hours per month than the F-35

    .
    March 1, 2023
    Pratt & Whitney Finds Fix for F-35 Engine Issue
    Problems with harmonic resonance had halted delivery of fighter jet engines for two months.
    .
    Feb 28, 2023
    Pentagon orders engine vibration fix for entire F-35 fleet worldwide
    .
    Feb 22, 2023
    Lockheed Martin-funded writer says F-35 is the best. It isn’t
    Tom Rogan, National Security Writer & Online Editor
    .
    FEB 15, 2023
    Not a Lot of F-35s Are Flying Right Now
    The Lightning II is mighty lonely at the moment.
    BY SASCHA BRODSKY

    FEB 13, 2023
    The F-35 fighter jet’s troubled history
    JOEL MATHIS

    Jan 23, 2023
    The F-35’s problems are hardly a thing of the past
    By Dave Makichuk Jan

    Jan 21, 2023
    F-35 diagnosed with ejectile dysfunction
    Yet another embarrassing setback.
    Duffel Blog

    Jan 13, 2023,
    Ongoing headaches with F-35 fighter jets are rippling through the rest of the US military’s combat aircraft fleet
    Michael Peck

    Jan 5, 2023
    The F-35 Is Everything Wrong With the Military-Industrial Complex
    BY
    MICHAEL BREN

    JANUARY 4, 2023
    Failing F-35 fighter grounded once again
    A faulty engine caused the $1.7 trillion boondoggle fighter to crash during a December quality check.

    Jan 23, 2023
    The F-35’s problems are hardly a thing of the past
    By Dave Makichuk

  3. Well, one thing is for sure: China doesn’t really appear to be capable of pulling off a Taiwan invasion, no matter how much sabre rattling she does over the South China Sea, EVEN IF America is diverted from having its full armament and attention on the theater, due to being diverted in the MidEast.

    Sure, should it come to it, China could harry Taiwan almost endlessly, having the close-by mainland there with its supply chains, armament, RADARs and non-ballistic missile firing capabilities. China could also launch quite an impressive salvo of amphibious landing craft and whatever their version of Marines is, at Taiwan. Simultaneously.

    And all of that, in the short term, is really beyond the capability of response of America’s Far Eastern theater forces. I think. I don’t know.

    Not with any of that contrary, in the mid- to long- term China would face a much enhanced American armament and provisioning power, one that when cornered into defending its largely pacific allies, would not take lightly to the incursions. Retribution is a bîtch.

    So, would having a magic wand capable of squirting out 500 J–20s all at once, today, do the trick? Yah, sure, but as Brian notes, they’re not exactly battle-worthy opponents yet. Even if 500 of them materialized out of thin air.

    Thus it is as it has been for some time: militarily, America has no peer. Not Worldwide, nor concentrated in inconvenient theaters. And lest anyone forget, America isn’t standing still in the R&D investment realm. The F–35, as odd of a duck as it has been, is also very capable and potent. And it’ll have — according to articles on this very NBF site — it’ll have its replacements, rather sooner than later. Beware.

    ⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

    • true, Taiwan is a very defensible mountainous island with few beaches you can land on and the better heads estimate twain has roughly even odds if not better of defending itself without US involvement. never mind if we have some forces near by & use them.

      People forget how much of a paper tiger china’s military is thanks to all the propaganda.

      But china’s military is still primarily soviet based and you can see how badly that is doing against Ukraine aided with old western stockpiles now.

      In case you missed it, Russia with about 3 times the forces is taking more than 3 times the losses.

      the Russians after the losses from the first counter offensive used tremendous amounts of mines to stave off the second summer offensive & have failed miserably in every offensive since the first counter offensive.
      they’ve been pushed to a standstill despite having an advantage in artillery, manpower, airpower, armor & naval assets thanks to moderate western equipment & technical support & training.

      some may point out that china has improved upon the older soviet designs, but I point out again, so has Russia in Ukraine.
      But in the case of Taiwan, china will be receiving the west’s best in full, the newest most capable, not old stock piles dribbled in as with Ukraine.

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