In 2024, the US Air Force will select the vendor the sixth generation NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) fighter and the either GE or Pratt & Whitney for the ATEP engine (Adaptive Engine Transition Program).
The Air Force last year awarded contracts worth nearly $1 billion each to aircraft manufacturers Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to work on prototyping NGAD engines and to do some airframe work. It will be either Boeing or Lockheed as Northrop Grumman has said they will not continue NGAD. Grumman will focus on the Navy F-A/XX 6th gen fighter.
The fourth generation fighters (F15, F16, F18s) and old bombers (B-52 and B1B) have performed almost all of the fighting for the US for the past four decades. The F-22 and F-35 have barely performed any actual combat missions. The roughly 200 F-22s had one mission which was to shoot down the recent China spy balloon. The fourth generation planes have had thousands of missions in the first Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq war and in the many years of the Iraq and Afghanistan operations. The F117 had some usage in Panama, Kosovo war and in the Gulf war.
The F-35 was first used in combat in 2018 by the Israeli Air Force. The U.S. Marine Corps conducted its first F-35B combat mission over Afghanistan in 2018. The F-35 has been used in about six combat operations. The F-35 first flew in 2006 and entered service with the U.S. Marine Corps in July 2015. The U.S. Air Force F-35A entered service in August 2016, and the U.S. Navy F-35C entered service in February 2019.
Actual US Air domination for the past four decades has come from the B2, B1B, F117, F16, F15 and F18.
The fifth generation F-22 and F-35 can claim to be superior in war games and simulated combat, but not in actual operations.
The 1,000 planned collaborative combat aircraft (drone wingmen) could actually make the F-22 and F-35 usable. The drones would be able to go into risky situations to launch weapons without risking the F-22 and F-35 or B2 bombers they are flying with.
This will then transition to the new sixth generation fighters and new stealth bombers with better computers and communications to coordinate more fast drones.
The Russian planes and air force have proven to be vastly inferior in the Ukraine war.
80% of China’s modern planes are based upon the Russian fighters.
The Russian stealth fighter has not been used in the Ukraine War.
China has not been using the advanced J-20 stealth in any of its operations flying around and near Taiwan.
The fifth generation for the US, Russia and China have yet to show major usefulness in any combat situation.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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50years of the USAF getting air dominance against 3rd-world countries with no air forces and you say-
“The Russian planes and air force have proven to be vastly inferior in the Ukraine war. ”
I hope you’ve got the balls to match your mouth.. Put the Yanks up against a peer-level enemy and see how they go! Even the Ukies are complaining that NATO training works in a board game but not in real battle. Your Gen6 will not survive the missiles long enough to find the enemy aircraft if you’re up against any first world power.
The doctrine of “look first, shoot first” will continue as long as the technology has an edge. Your complaints about training? We simply need people to babysit the technology mostly, and perform adequately in the occasional one on one.
[ dominance will depend on the network(s), (bvr, more than ~1min NGAD_F flight time on Mach2 cruise speed) (?), but this emphasising is lacking ‘smart input’ before dominance (?) ]
Higher detection rate – NGAD will see those 20, 50, 100 drones long before those drones will see it. They may see one of its own drones, but not the piloted craft.
Higher munitions load, eventual DEWs – Those drones will take high loses before they can even close with the NGAD, and this is if the NGAD wants to hang around long enough for them to get in range.
Cost per kill – Costs will depend on how soon DEWs can be deployed on a NGAD and possibly its defensive drones.
What type of drones? – Are you assuming these drones to be swarms of low cost kamikazee drones, or high end drones loaded with sophisticated sensors and their own munitions? If the former, they will easily be dispatched long before they can do any damage. If the later, then yes they can become a threat, but they are also far more costly to lose and still unlikely to take out the actual NGAD, only some of its drones.
Now as for keeping dominance for many years – I don’t think so. Once AI design and production start to take off it will become an ever accelerating arms race to design, produce and field more and more advanced systems. NGAD will be replaced far sooner than many systems of the past.
The pork must flow
This was supposed to be the Chinese century. But the economy is bust, the population is bust.
Russia was supposedly the second greatest military on Earth, but is now barely the second greatest military in Ukraine. The Chinese military is probably in an even worse state in reality. There is no one to challenge the US.
It is food and energy secure. Its population pyramid looks more like a developing country. Even if it never produces a successor to the F22, it will still keep dominance.
The china detractors said the samething when their population was growing. I guess you can never win with these people. The west will lose its dominant because no body cares to learn Chinese history or culture except making up their own version. How do you win when you are clueless about your adversary. Despite the propaganda, China never see the west as adversary but trade partner… But when you are nasty to me i have to hit back.
Toy, it appears you have not been following geopolitics and are confusing the problem. The problem is NOT the Chinese people, it is the current dictatorship and rigid government. China is angering a lot of nations as it pushes and shoves smaller nations around. There is a reason Vietnam, the Phillipins, Australia, South Korea, Thialand, India, and Taiwan are all seeking closer ties with the U.S. – even with the current, feckless, administration. China has been trying the make friends, then break their legs, approach to diplomacy… it doesn’t work.
China is not just a happy peaceful kingdom looking for nothing more than good trading partners. Xi Jinping wants power, and does not want to lose the “Mandate of Heaven”. He knows that he needs to expand China’s reach and project power because his domestic policies are going to implode. The Chinese people are used to taking a lot of abuse from their leader(s) but as history shows, they will not endure abuse forever.
No, China’s history really has nothing to do with how CCP operates. Communism & propaganda not working. Its build-build-build failed.
ROFL, the answer is a big FAT NO.
I like to see NGAD stop 20 swarming drones, no chance!
“Deliver Decades of Air Dominance”
You know well Brian that tech progress is accelerating, what was good enough in the past for decades, now will be outdated year after premiere.