Reports of More Ukrainian Progress

There are reports that Ukraine is pushing into Lyman and several areas near the major breakthrough near the city of Izium. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists. This will likely take a few weeks to get those reservists into Ukraine. Russia will get those who are unable to avoid the draft. However, they will have …

Read more

Lex Fridman Talks Singularity With Ray Kurzweil

Lex Fridman talked with Ray Kurzweil about the Technological Singularity. Ray still asserts that computer artificial intelligence will pass the Turing Test in 2029 and the Singularity will happen around 2045. In the past, Ray has clarified that his predictions date are usually with an implied plus or minus one decade. A Ray Kurzweil prediction …

Read more

Russia Accepting Recent Loss and Putin Blames His Generals

Russia is acknowldging the defeat in Ukraine and Putin is blaming the loss on underinformed military advisors within Putin’s circle. The Kremlin’s admission of defeat in Kharkiv shows that Putin is willing and able to recognize and even accept a Russian defeat at least in some circumstances and focus on deflecting blame from himself. This …

Read more

The Rate of Russian Loss of Tanks and Gear Has Tripled

David Axe, respected and experienced military journalist, says Russia is losing a Battalion every day. Losses have tripled during the Ukraine offensive. Russia has 100 understrength battalions. Increased equipment loss is confirmed. There are about 1000 soldiers per battalion. The Russian army is losing at least a battalion’s worth of vehicles and men a day …

Read more

Ukraine Pressing Russian Forces in Luhansk and Donetz Regions

Russia has not yet stabilized its defensive lines against Ukraine. Ukraine is still advancing after routing Russian Forces from the Kharkiv region. Russia had retreated past the Oskil river. Ukraine seems to have pushed beyond the Oskil river in several points. There are reports of some towns and locations being taken in the Donetsk and …

Read more

Accuracy of Nextbigfuture Predictions

Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical …

Read more

What Happens After Russia Loses in Ukraine?

Russia does not seem like they will be able to quickly fix the problems that resulted in Ukraine breaking through Russian lines and take over 8000 square kilometers of land. US satellites and intelligence have been able to precisely identify ammo depots and command centers. Russia has no response to precision long-range HIMARS artillery. Why …

Read more