Tesla FSD seems to be finally happening. Nextbigfuture has had the steady coverage that you see below.
Here is the link to the FSD tagged articles.
Six days ago, I reported the prediction of a wide release of Tesla FSD 12.3.
IF Tesla 12.3.1 is as good as all the reports then it could be possible for 10% of the 1.8 million non-FSD customers to become FSD customers. This would mean $2 billion in immediate revenue with the $12k purchase or $36 million per month with the subscription.
This will likely be taken off beta in April, May or June, 2024. This would mean full revenue recognition. If new 200,000 cars are sold in the USA each quarter and 25% choose FSD then this would be 50,000 sales per quarter. It would be like an extra 5% profit margin per car.
BREAKING: Tesla has now started one month free FSD trials in the US!
“Receive one month trial of Full-Self Driving Capability with a new vehicle purchase.” pic.twitter.com/u0dgaIgGpT
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) March 26, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Model 3 and Y are not new ones, refreshments are tiny, not some next version or next gen. Sales are of course not growing a lot and will get worse. Tesla needs new even better models, not just refreshments to keep up growth. Cybertruck after all that delays still not produced in big volume,… No model 2 yet. This is not the way.
What happens if the car loses connectivity for even a few seconds, like a dropped call? That could be fatal.
Also, the insurance liability issues need to be worked out. Who’s at fault in an accident – and there will ALWAYS be accidents. And perhaps more unpredictably, since AI fails where humans excel and vice versa, even if the overall rate is lower (still unproven at scale with non-Tesla owners factored in). I’ve yet to see no fault insurance that doesn’t penalize the driver somehow. And Telsa certainly isn’t assuming liability anytime soon, nor should they.
The FSD is installed autonomously on the car. It doesn’t need constant connectivity. Training occurs centrally which subsequently, goes out to update the cars.
Imagine having an accident, then getting an email from Tesla
“Our simulation of the accident shows the FSD would have moved like this (picture) instead of what you did (picture), thus preventing the accident. Would you like to know more?”
I foresee a change in laws coming, its not right to sell cars able to prevent accidents and then put that feature behind a paywall.
Anyone can get 3 months FSD trial by using a referral code.
What? Tesla owners must pay for FSD updates? Are you kidding me!
Tesla FSD is TOO expensive. I can drive myself to and from work for FREE.
Elon wants FSD to be a subscription service.
Planet Fitness offers membership for only $10 a month, 90% of its subscribers rarely visit the gym, but it is so inexpensive that they keep their membership.
Tesla should do the same for FSD, at $80 a month it would be worth having even if rarely used.
It would be like an extra 5% profit margin per car
How can it possibly be that low if it’s a $12k option that is already resident in all cars coming off the production line?
You are right. For a 60k car, that would be almost 20% incremental margin.
I think is more about to get more Training data ?