The UN reports that Asia has a total population of 4.78 billion but the UN overestimates China’s population by 16 million people. Asia is about 60% of global population. India and China make up about 60% of Asia’s population. The UN Population division has forecasted far high populations and fertility for India and China than those countries are reporting. India is complete a delayed 2021 census. If the estimates have to be revised downward to reflect a lower India Census, then the concerns and issues about global depopulation will get heightened.
If big errors in the actual population counts for India and China and population forecasts for India and China get adjusted later this year or in coming years could the start of a reckoning for global population concerns.
This downward trend will accelerate as the median age of the population will increase from 39 now to 47 by 2040. By 2025-2026, China will be below 1.4 billion people by the official count.
The United Nations (UN) predicts that China’s population will reach 1.4 billion in 2040 and 1.31 billion by 2050. China dropping by 10 million per year in the 2030s would mean 1.3 billion by 2036 and 1.1 billion by 2050.
2024 is the year of the Dragon. Normally, there is a boost in couples choosing to have babies in this year of the 12 year Zodiac cycle.
China has 13 million people who are older than 85.
China has another 20 million people from 80-84.
They have 36 million from 75-79.
India Count
India delayed its 2021 census to late this year.
The UN is projecting that India will reach 1.6 to 1.7 billion people before its population peaks.
However, the UN has been expecting India to maintain a higher fertility rate. Recent reports from India show a fertility dropping to 1.90. this is about 9% below the replacement rate of 2.1.
There are suggestions that China may have adjusted its actual population census.
UN Adjusted Global 2100 Projection Down by 500 Million from 2019 to 2022
In its 2019 revision, the UN projected that the world population would not peak by the end of the century: it expected numbers to reach 10.9 billion by 2100 and continue to grow slowly in the early 22nd century. Its 2022 revision, UN expects that the world population would peak at around 10.4 billion people in the mid-2080s.
IF India and China end up being lower by 300-500 million by 2100 and by 300-350 million by 2050, then the UN would have to revise for a global peak by around 2050 at below 10 billion.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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