China is targeting 112 to 120 GW of nuclear power by itself for 2020. McKinsey indicated that China is targeting 120 GW for 2020. So the combined China, India and Vietnam target for the next 15 years is probably over 250 GW of new build.
There is a mention in the Wall Street Journal article that 46 countries could build 1000 reactors by 2030
1000 reactors for 2030 would be the high-2030 scenario from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) – Nuclear Century. The WNA lists nuclear generation targets by country. Even the high targets for China from the WNA are likely to be too low if China hits 120 GW or more by 2020, then 2030 could be 300-400 GW. If China is exporting nuclear reactors for half the price of France (40% lower for the latest reactors and even cheaper for older models) starting in 2013 then other countries could buy and build more reactors than if cheap reactors were not coming from South Korea and China. China will probably also not be as picky about which countries they build reactors.
China has been able to maintain Walmart like costs for its nuclear reactor build.
China and South Korea (and Russia) will be exporting what is currently an Asian nuclear boom around the world. Cheaper reactors that are built on time could solidify the orders that are currently the high end case.
The high case from WNA with only China increased. Uprating and cheaper exports and new factory mass produced reactors could increase these numbers even more. Programmes* 2008 2030 High Capacity in GWe Argentina 1 11 Armenia 0 1 Belarus 0 5 Belgium 6 8 Brazil 2 30 Bulgaria 2 7 Canada 13 30 China 9 300 Czech Republic 7 Finland 3 7 France 63 75 Germany 20 50 Hungary 2 5 India 4 70 Iran 0 10 Japan 48 70 Lithuania/ Latvia/ Estonia 1 6 Mexico 1 20 Netherlands 1 5 Pakistan 0 20 Romania 1 10 Russia 22 80 Slovakia 2 4 Slovenia 1 1 South Africa 2 25 South Korea 18 50 Spain 7 20 Sweden 9 15 Switzerland 3 6 Ukraine 13 30 United Kingdom 11 30 United States 99 180 SUBTOTAL 367 1188 Nations Planning Nuclear 2008 2030 High Capacity in GWe Egypt 0 10 Gulf Coop 0 50 Indonesia 0 6 Kazakhstan 0 2 Nigeria 0 15 Poland 0 10 Turkey 0 15 Vietnam 0 15 SUBTOTAL 0 123 *Gulf Cooperation Council members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Potential Entrants 2008 2030 High Capacity in GWe Albania 0 2 Algeria 0 5 Australia 0 10 Austria 0 3 Bangladesh 0 10 Chile 0 5 Croatia 0 2 Denmark 0 2 Greece 0 2 Iraq 0 2 Ireland 0 5 Israel 0 3 Italy 0 20 Jordan 0 7 Kenya 0 2 Malaysia/Singapore 0 10 Morocco 0 5 New Zealand 0 2 Norway 0 2 Philippines 0 10 Portugal 0 5 Serbia 0 2 Syria 0 3 Thailand 0 10 Venezuela 0 3 Other 0 4 SUBTOTAL 0 140 WORLD TOTAL 367 1450
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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