Looking at whether the dominant tech companies will continue to outperform.
This is Nextbigfuture’s attempt to predict big winning technologies and winning technology companies.
“FANG” is short for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Google (now Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)).
They have been some of the best-performing tech stocks of the past several years and are extremely popular among investors. Many say that they’re priced for unrealistically high levels of growth and are now in a bubble.
Facebook has climbed about 340% since its 2012 IPO. Even after its recent 20% drop.
Amazon.com has gone up six times since the beginning of 2015 and has returned over 40,000% over the past 20 years.
Netflix has risen by 4,000% since 2010.
Alphabet has gained over 2000% over the past 14 years.
Facebook had a bad earnings quarter and they may have hit a limit on their growth.
Cloud and other winning technologies will provide opportunities for the companies that are winning with them. Amazon, Google and Microsoft are winning with the Cloud.
The big chinese tech companies
They not only dominate e-commerce in China but Alibaba and Tencent dominate mobile payments. Plus they are broadly invested in many Chinese technology startups. China should have 5-6.8% annual GDP growth for several more years. This will outperform the US and developed countries.
China mobile payments look to be 4 to 8 times bigger than today. Another double in China economy. replacing more cash. Mobile payments are already trillions. Almost completed the takeover of non-cash. Then further erode cash use in China. Everywhere else mobile payments lag. But that still means Ant financial and other mobile payment companies in China win. Could be repeated in other developing countries where credit cards etc.. do not need to be beaten for mobile payments to win.
Recently, a new e-commerce startup, Pinduoduo, has raised close to $3 billion at a valuation of $15 billion.
Something out of biotech?
The dominant companies in CRISPR gene therapy are Editas, CRISPR and Intellia. They each have key patents.
Something out of fintech?
There are many predictions that Bitcoin will recover and get bigger and the privacy coins (Zcash, Monero) will be bigger. This is clearly highly speculative. Blockchain technology has real uses and benefits for financial innovation and security applications and for identification.