TSMC has to screw up to lose its lead in Semiconductors. Intel was in the lead for decades and then they screwed up badly and lost about 6+ years. Intel was about 2-4 years and now are trying to catch up from 4 years behind.
TSMC Morris Chang is keeping it going. 30 minutes into this video, Morris Chang talks how he keeps employees with long term service and experience in TSMC and how that enables TSMC to win. Trade schools in Taiwan give quality technicians and operators. You cannot have 25% turnover of technicians and operators because it takes 3 months to get remotely competent and it messes up your manufacturing. TSMC has about 2% turnover. They have a learning curve advantage but only works locally. TSMC has thousands of engineers in dorms Monday to Friday. Taiwan could lose its engineering mojo grit in the next 20-30 years. The US had this engineering grit in the 1950s-60s. If Taiwan loses it, then semiconductor leadership will move to the next country which could be India, Vietnam or Indonesia.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Taiwan has no Affirmative Action quota.
It is unlikely that India or Indonesia will become the next tech center. Vietnam possibly. More likely it will be China itself. David Goldman has many articles in Asia Times as to why it will be China.
Intel, Boeing, Ford, etc.
Great companies started and run by men who understood engineering. Eventually they got run by bean counters who wanted to ‘maximize profit’ over the quality and safety of their products. This leads to the downfall of the company. Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc. they are all going this direction. Sadly this will eventually happen at the Elon Musk run companies when he retires.
Such is the fate of human made organizations. The founders’ intent gradually becomes dead letter as the power seeker busybodies and blowhards coming after them, become the new rulers.
They create secondary intents and follow agendas unrelated to profit and success for the company, specially when things are good and business still seems invulnerable.
Until the rot extends and they start failing at their main goals, getting surpassed by leaner and meaner competitors.
I sincerely hope the US could regain semiconductor dominance in the next two decades. As Brian rightly pointed out, Grok AI & other LLMs would be crucial for finessing EDA,verification softwares & other foundry processes.
Semiconductor manufacture is the most technically demanding industry on the planet, requiring a culture of extreme focus and uncompromising STEM competence which the west has largely destroyed over the last twenty years. Where would a US semiconductor industry find the expertise and skills it needs to do the work? (outside of H1B program)
Indian immigrants?