July 16, 2016

Reviewing where World War 3 could breakout ?

What are the most likely places for world war 3 to breakout ? The cold war had a more clear matchup between NATO and the Soviet Union with the most likely breakout being in Europe. Now there are many possible breakout locations.

Global tensions and conflicts give the feeling like you are reading a history book and are in the chapter just before the big war. The period where there are conflicts and tensions building but little resolutions.

The Council on Foreign Relations tracks all of the current global conflict hotspots

There are several reviews of what could be a flashpoint for the next global war aka World war 3.

North Korea

A few days ago North Korea (DPRK) threatened to reduce Japan “to debris” as it considers invading the country.

Pyongyang-based newspaper Rodong Sinmun, which is the official publication for the hermit state’s one-party government, promised the nation possessed the weapons to carry out its attack – in response to a Japanese military drill.

The editorial accused Japan of working with South Korean officials, described as “the worst group of traitors”, as part of a plan to invade the country.

Last weekend the state promised to turn South Korea into “a sea of fire and a pile of ashes” after its neighbor and the United States moved to deploy a missile defense system near its territory.

North Korea has nuclear bombs and is working on submarine launched missiles and intercontinental missiles.

In January 2016, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear weapons test, claiming to have detonated its first hydrogen bomb. However, analysis of the seismic readings and radiation left doubt as to what type of weapon was actually tested. Continuing to defy international sanctions, in February 2016 Pyongyang fired a long-range rocket to launch a satellite in to orbit, which was widely viewed as continued testing of intercontinental ballistic missile technologies and has further increased tensions. These actions have elicited serious concerns, with new U.S. sanctions passed in February 2016 following additional punitive measures taken by Japan and South Korea.

North Korea has continued to test weapons systems since 2012, including the launch of the long-range Unha-3 rocket in December 2012 and a nuclear test in February 2013. Pyongyang threatened a fourth test in November 2014, following the adoption of a resolution by the UN General Assembly condemning North Korean human rights abuses.

Other incitements include firing rockets across the South Korean border, known as the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), in August 2015 and North Korea’s cyberattack on U.S.-based Sony Pictures in December 2014, as well as its 2010 shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, which is located around twelve miles south of the North Korean coast.

Submarine missile launch test from April 2016

South China Sea - Scarborough Shoal

China is calling the construction project for Scarborough Shoal its plan for Huangyan—“Yellow Rock”—Island, where a settlement will be set up. The atoll is a potential flashpoint in the disputed South China Sea and is claimed by Beijing, Manila and Taipei. Chinese coastguard ships took control of the area after a tense stand-off with Philippine vessels in 2012.

The shoal is located about 168 miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines, where U.S. warships will be regularly deployed in the future as part of the enhanced defense agreement recently concluded between Washington and Manila.

A graphic with one photo outlined the development plan, with three Chinese guided-missile frigates at a wharf at the southern opening of the shoal.

“From this future base the 400-kilometer range YJ-62 can attack targets in most of the Philippine main island of Luzon,” Fisher said. “China could also deploy longer range anti-ship ballistic missiles to this base.”

The US and the Philippines began joint patrols in the South China Sea in March, US ­defense chief Ash Carter revealed during his latest visit to the region. US forces will also have ­access to at least eight military bases in the Philippines, with two air bases in Pampanga, 330km from Scarborough Shoal.

East China Sea - Japan vs China

Tensions between Japan and China over the contested Senkaku/Daioyu islands in the East China Sea have subsided in recent months as a result of high-level political discussions organized to prevent a dangerous escalation. However, close interactions between air and maritime forces of both countries continue.

In June 2015, the Japanese government revealed that China came closer to Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by establishing natural gas projects along the border between the two countries. Chinese and Japanese naval and air patrol vessels continue to operate closely in the area, making the risk of a miscalculation that could lead to an armed confrontation a real danger. To maintain its strategic advantage, China has converted naval warships of considerable size and capability to coast guard vessels, These actions, as well as Chinese coast guards’ constant patrolling, present serious concerns for Japan. In 2015, Chinese aircrafts approached Japan’s airspace more than 570 times, causing the Japanese government to scramble in response.

Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida lodged a protest with the Chinese embassy on June 2, 2016 for new construction at two Chinese gas facilities. The Ministry had just confirmed that China was constructing drilling towers in the East China Sea near the median line Japan has proposed as a demarcation line. The construction was spotted by Self-Defense Forces personnel flying over the area in late May.

Aside from a brief period after World War II when the United States controlled the territory, the Senkaku/Daioyu islands have formally been a part of Japanese territory since 1895, although owned by a private Japanese citizen. China began to assert claims over the Senkaku/Daioyu islands in the 1970s. Tensions resurfaced in September 2012 when Japan purchased three of the disputed islands from the private owner. The economically significant islands, which are northeast of Taiwan, have potential oil and natural gas reserves, are near prominent shipping routes, and are surrounded by rich fishing areas.

Rising nationalist sentiments and growing political mistrust heighten the potential for conflict and hinders the capacity for peaceful resolution of the dispute. Though Chinese and Japanese leaders have refrained from forcibly establishing control over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, unauthorized action by local commanders could result in the unintended escalation of hostilities. Through treaty commitments with Japan, a military confrontation could involve the United States.

India, Pakistan, China

Territorial disputes over the Kashmir region sparked two of the three major Indo-Pakistani wars in 1947 and 1965, and a limited war in 1999. Although both countries have maintained a fragile cease-fire since 2003, they regularly exchange fire across the contested border. There was an uptick in high-profile cease-fire violations beginning in July 2014, and artillery shelling and small arms fire continued through 2015. Both sides accuse the other of violating the cease-fire and claim to be shooting in retaliation to attacks.

Having identified South Asia as an epicenter of terrorism and religious extremism, the United States has an interest in ensuring regional stability, preventing nuclear weapons proliferation, and minimizing the potential of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

July 13, 2016 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked security forces to exercise "absolute restraint" and ensure that "civilians were not harassed" in Kashmir following the killing of a popular militant leader (Hindu). Thirty-two people have died in clashes between protesters since the weekend (RFE/RL), and Pakistan summoned India's high commissioner to discuss the violence

July 11, 2016 Some twenty-two people were killed and an estimated two hundred injured after police and paramilitary troops in Indian-administered Kashmir fired on mourners paying homage to rebel leader Burhan Wani, who was killed Friday

China has had border wars with India and China supplies Pakistan with arms.

Middle East

There are all kinds of conflicts there in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Libya and other spots.

There are many countries involved including Israel, Russia and the USA.

Pew Research Center surveyed muslim countries to determine how much support there is for terrorism, strict sharia law and other questions.
There are over 1.7 billion muslims in the world.

Pew research polling suggests at least 100 million muslims support [have a favorable view] ISIS and if say around half of those who would not say their opinion had some support then it could be another 200-300 million.

A favorable view of terrorism as a tactic in general is even higher than support for ISIS About 200 million muslims support terrorism as a tactic.

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