Less than four years after passing Japan for second largest economy, China will have double Japan’s GDP bu mid-2014

China surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter of 2010. China’s economy should double Japan’s GDP late in 2013 or early in 2014 (less than 14 months).

Japan’s GDP has been going between a band of 470 trillion yen and 524 trillion yen (based on current prices) from 1996 to 2013. At the end 2012 it was about 490 trillion yen.

Japan’s exchange rate is now 101.7 yen to 1 US dollar. Japan’s GDP in nominal currency is below US$ 5 trillion.

Japan is forecast to have about +1.6% and +1.3% real GDP growth for 2013 and 2014.

China’s GDP (including Hong Kong and Macau) is likely to be about $9.8 trillion at the end of 2013 and will be about twice the size of Japan. China’s GDP including Hong Kong and Macau) is likely to be about $11.0 trillion at the end of 2014.

China had a GDP (not including Hong Kong and Macau) of 52 trillion yuan (8.28 trillion U.S. dollars, 8.6 trillion including Hong Kong and Macau) at the end of 2012.

Hong Kong has a GDP of 275 billion in 2013. Macau has a GDP of about 50 billion in 2013.

China should have a GDP of 57.4 trillion yuan at the end of 2013 (US$9.4 trillion, 6.1 exchange)
China should have a GDP of 64 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 (US$10.7 trillion, 5.9 exchange).

Japan’s GDP in Q4 of 2012.

Japan’s GDP in yen at current prices from 1996 to 2010

Japan’s projected GDP for 2013 and 2014 according to Credit Suisse analysis.

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