Moore’s law is in trouble.
EUV lithography has been delayed
EUV lithography is needed to make 450 mm wafer economical.
For decades, semiconductor engineers have come to broad agreement about which technologies represented the best and most reliable scaling opportunities for future manufacturing. While some foundries take different paths (gate-first vs. gate-last at 28nm is a good example), these could be seen as relatively minor deviations from the overarching trend. Both TSMC and GlobalFoundries implemented multiple process types of 28nm but have moved to a unified 20nm design. Both companies are moving to FinFETs, even if GF is also doing some work on FD-SOI. All of the major players were planning 450mm rollouts until quite recently.
If EUV and 450mm wafers don’t happen at 10nm, the “what happens next?” roadmap is a grab-bag of unresolved difficulties and potentially terrible economics. (Feature story: The future of CPU scaling: Exploring options on the cutting edge.) There are no “easy” problems left to solve, but the consequence of betting on the wrong technology could be cataclysmically expensive in terms of lost market share and enormous R&D costs. No one can afford to be wrong — but with costs skyrocketing across the board, it’s not clear if anyone can afford to be right.
AMSL remains committed to improving source power on its EUV hardware.
Wang is a prolific business-oriented writer of emerging and disruptive technologies. He is known for insightful articles that combine business and technical analysis that catches the attention of the general public and is also useful for those in the industries. He is the sole author and writer of nextbigfuture.com
, the top online science blog. He is also involved in angel investing and raising funds for breakthrough technology startup companies.
He gave the recent keynote presentation at Monte Jade event with a talk entitled the Future for You. He gave an annual update on molecular nanotechnology at Singularity University on nanotechnology, gave a TEDX talk on energy, and advises USC ASTE 527 (advanced space projects program). He has been interviewed for radio, professional organizations. podcasts and corporate events. He was recently interviewed by the radio program Steel on Steel on satellites and high altitude balloons that will track all movement in many parts of the USA.
He fundraises for various high impact technology companies and has worked in computer technology, insurance, healthcare and with corporate finance.
He has substantial familiarity with a broad range of breakthrough technologies like age reversal and antiaging, quantum computers, artificial intelligence, ocean tech, agtech, nuclear fission, advanced nuclear fission, space propulsion, satellites, imaging, molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology, medicine, blockchain, crypto and many other areas.