If China matches US GDP growth from 1976 to 2015 then it catches up on per capita GDP

Stansberry Churchouse makes a bullish case for China’s future economy.

They basically make the case for China to sustain GDP growth of 5% per year from now to 2030 and then 4% per year from 2030-2055.

China would then have per capita income equal to what the USA has today. The USA would have about double its per capita income today in 2050.

At half the US per capita income then China would be at the level of Italy today.

By 2022, McKinsey and other research suggests, more than 75 percent of China’s urban consumers will earn 60,000 to 229,000 renminbi ($9,000 to $34,000) a year. The overall GDP per capita in China will be at $15000 per capita in 2025. The IMF projects China’s nominal GDP per capita in 2022 at $12,500.

China will pass the U.S. to become the world’s largest aviation market by passengers by 2024. Chinese air passenger traffic will double to 927 million passengers a year by 2025 (compared to the U.S.’s 904 million by 2025). By 2035, the number will hit 1.3 billion.

China’s rising middle-class, combined with agreements to ease travel between China and other major markets, are contributing to an outbound tourism boom. According to the China National Tourism Administration, the number of China’s outbound tourists exceeded 100 million last year.

By 2035, the propensity for the Chinese population to fly will grow from 0.3 trips per capita today, to 1.3, a higher level than the whole of Europe’s propensity to fly today, Airbus predicted.

China at half of the US nominal per capita GDP would have nearly double the US overall GDP in 2050.

If China’s currency were to strengthen to match the purchasing power parity level, then China would have over three times the US GDP and would equal the US nominal per capita GDP level in 2050.

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