More innovation key to better economic growth through 2030

The Japan Center for Economic Research released a medium-term economic forecast for Asia from 2018-2030.

India, Vietnam and Philippines should have high economic growth through 2030.

In the baseline scenario, Indonesia should reach global upper middle-income level (over $4000 per person) in 2019 and the Philippines in 2022 and Vietnam around 2029. India will not reach that level before 2030.

Malaysia will be global high income (over $12000 per person) by 2023 and China by 2025. Thailand will probably not surpass that level by 2030.

If there is more innovation (more successful Unicorns) then any of the countries can have stronger economic growth and performance.

With baseline innovation China’s GDP growth would slow to 2.8% but with strong innovation China could sustain 4.9% GDP through 2030.

Debt adjustment crisis

If China had a two year recession (-4% GDP growth) because of a debt related recession, then this is what it might look like statistically.

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