Europe policy struggles are to avoid decades of Japan-like economic stagnation

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Most European policies have to work out in order for Europe to achieve sustained 2-3 % GDP growth. The alternative is Japan levels of 1% slow economic growth.

The EU had 2.5% GDP growth in 2017 and is forecast to have 2.3% growth in 2018 and 2.0% growth in 2019.

Europe’s aging population and low birthrates will see a decrease of 2 million people per year in the workforce without immigration. Current immigration levels have been enough to hold workforce losses to 1 million people per year. The immigration has resulted in ethnic tensions and other problems.

The choices Europe faces are
* Work a lot more hours and delay retirement or accept more immigration and find ways to integrate the new people into society. Europe will probably have to do both but figure how to reduce the downsides of current immigration.
* Try to make a lot of stimulus work and get successful with technological innovation

Stimulus and policy so far

If national and European-level economics reforms and investments in innovation, infrastructure, and energy are achieved, sustained GDP growth rates of 2 to 3 percent a year would be possible over the next decade, according to McKinsey.

The Investment Plan for Europe (“Juncker investment plan”) started in 2014 and was leveraging public and private money to fund €315 billion of investments over three years. It is claimed to be 93% effective so far.

EFSI expected to trigger €294 billion in investments
93% of the original €315 billion target met
412 infrastructure and innovation projects approved
418 SME financing agreements approved
around 644,000 SMEs expected to benefit

The EU has launched the Digital Single Market (DSM) project, which aims to reduce barriers for both citizens and businesses. The hope is that a Digital Single Market could add as much as 4 percent, or €415 billion, to the EU economy. The European Commission has proposed the Capital Markets Union, which may eventually make it easier for European startups to find capital for growth.

15 thoughts on “Europe policy struggles are to avoid decades of Japan-like economic stagnation”

  1. Some of the problem is the negative population growth. If your population is decreasing you can’t expect your economy to be growing fast. You make get some growth from productivity increase but it won’t be as much as population growth times productivity growth.

  4. Some of the problem is the negative population growth. If your population is decreasing you can’t expect your economy to be growing fast. You make get some growth from productivity increase but it won’t be as much as population growth times productivity growth.

  7. The migrants coming to Europe are rarely able to work productively. Sub-Saharan Africans have a mean IQ of 70. They can not be reasonably employed in any job position and are more probable to become welfare recipients (like they are today) than find any job at all. Just look at see what Africans is France have done after the Soccer Championship (and do every day). The menial jobs the highest IQ minority could take will be largely automated in the next few years. In all Europe, a cultural reaction is starting to take on the power structure. As the economy decline, the indigenous population become restless and angry. It is the european population that work hard and pay taxes. As they don’t are able to afford retirement and high taxes or form families, they will continue to back increasingly intransigent parties and the lower classes (the one in direct contact with the migrants) will become increasingly difficult to control.

  8. The migrants coming to Europe are rarely able to work productively.Sub-Saharan Africans have a mean IQ of 70.They can not be reasonably employed in any job position and are more probable to become welfare recipients (like they are today) than find any job at all.Just look at see what Africans is France have done after the Soccer Championship (and do every day).The menial jobs the highest IQ minority could take will be largely automated in the next few years.In all Europe a cultural reaction is starting to take on the power structure. As the economy decline the indigenous population become restless and angry. It is the european population that work hard and pay taxes. As they don’t are able to afford retirement and high taxes or form families they will continue to back increasingly intransigent parties and the lower classes (the one in direct contact with the migrants) will become increasingly difficult to control.

  9. The German Bundeswehr are using broomsticks painted black for their military training because they don’t have rifles, too. Let the Russians role right on it. In return, we get 10% off the GDP top of Russian Occupied Europe. Way better deal for us.

  10. The German Bundeswehr are using broomsticks painted black for their military training because they don’t have rifles too.Let the Russians role right on it. In return we get 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} off the GDP top of Russian Occupied Europe. Way better deal for us.

  11. The German Bundeswehr are using broomsticks painted black for their military training because they don’t have rifles, too.

    Let the Russians role right on it. In return, we get 10% off the GDP top of Russian Occupied Europe. Way better deal for us.

  12. The migrants coming to Europe are rarely able to work productively.
    Sub-Saharan Africans have a mean IQ of 70.
    They can not be reasonably employed in any job position and are more probable to become welfare recipients (like they are today) than find any job at all.

    Just look at see what Africans is France have done after the Soccer Championship (and do every day).

    The menial jobs the highest IQ minority could take will be largely automated in the next few years.

    In all Europe, a cultural reaction is starting to take on the power structure. As the economy decline, the indigenous population become restless and angry. It is the european population that work hard and pay taxes. As they don’t are able to afford retirement and high taxes or form families, they will continue to back increasingly intransigent parties and the lower classes (the one in direct contact with the migrants) will become increasingly difficult to control.

  13. Some of the problem is the negative population growth. If your population is decreasing you can’t expect your economy to be growing fast. You make get some growth from productivity increase but it won’t be as much as population growth times productivity growth.

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