Official Indian estimates placed annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent but new research estimates that actual growth may have been about 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of 3.5 – 5.5 percent. The evidence, based on disaggregated data from India and cross-sectional/panel regressions, is robust.
India’s former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian published a Harvard University paper that claimed that India’s GDP growth estimates from 2011-12 to 2016-17 were exaggerated by 2.5 percentage points per year. This would be a nearly 20% overestimation for the period.
The Economic Advisory Council to the Indian Prime Minister (EAC-PM) on June 19 rejected the former CEA’s claims regarding overestimated GDP growth after 2011. They claim the high-frequency indicators ignore data on services, agriculture, and tax collection.