SpaceX will bring point to point travel between major world cities starting near the end of the 2020s if they can increase the safety. It will more likely become significant around 2035-2045.
The first spaceports would be in New York, London, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Dubai, Singapore, Shanghai and Beijing.
This would be followed by Bangkok, Hong Kong, Paris, Dehli, Seoul, Honolulu, Melbourne and Sidney.
Traveling in less than one hour between major cities will start with key routes from New York to London, Los Angeles to Shanghai, Los Angeles to Singapore, New York to Tokyo and Tokyo to London. They would likely want to start with long-haul routes over oceans. This would avoid the risk of rockets crashing onto land.
The current busiest long-haul air routes would be where there would be the demand for spaceports. Asia will continue to see the highest air travel growth.
In 2019, there are 38 megacities in the world (urban areas over 10 million population), up from 37 last year. A total of 87 urban areas are indicated with 5,000,000 or more population, up from 86 last year.
In 2025, there will be about 41 megacities in the world and there will be 12 in China and six in India. Megacities are cities with populations over 10 million. Greater London has a population of 8.9 million now and the San Francisco Bay has a population of 7.8 million. Greater London should have a population over 10 million by 2030. Dubai has a population of 2.8 million.
By 2030, 10 percent of the global population and 16 percent of the world’s GDP will come from megacities. Jakarta is on track to overtake Tokyo, currently the world’s most populous city, and many African and East Asian will continue to see massive population growth.
Megaregions grouping increase the GDP share to these major areas to about 30% of World GDP. By the 2050’s and 2100s, the megaregions will be over 50% of world GDP.
Spaceports connecting megacities with less than one hour travel will further increase the dominance of megacities. Robotic greenhouses and synthetic biology food production (using beer fermentation of cells) will reduce the need for rural farms and make urban areas more self-sufficient.
There are about 655 million people in megacities now out of 7.7 billion (8.4% mega-urban).
There will be almost 850 million in megacities in 2030 out of 8.5 billion (10% mega-urban).
There will be almost 1.4 billion in megacities in 2050 out of 10 billion (14% mega-urban).
There will be about 1.8 billion in megacities in 2075 out of 11 billion (17% mega-urban).
There will be about 2.8 billion in megacities in 2100 out of 12 billion (23% mega-urban).
Around 2150, the world should be over 50% mega-urban. This will be over 7 billion in megacities.
SOURCES- Demographia, SpaceX, WeForum
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.