Hyperchange proposes Tesla transitioning to a licensing scenario for gigafactories, the electric skateboard and the full driving system. This would be like the Intel inside method of domination.
Hyperchange could license the batteries and the skateboard platforms for $6,000 to 8,000 per car. Hyperchange suggests that they could license the functional self-driving car technology for $40,000 per car.
Nextbigfuture believes a functional self-driving car technology license would only be that high for self-driving commercial trucks and robotaxis.
Elon Musk does seem to be interacting a great deal with the CEO of Fiat and Volkswagen.
Volkswagen has talked about spending €60 billion from 2020 to 2024 to electrify its fleet of cars. VW said it would aim to sell 26 million all-electric vehicles by 2029 and around 6 million hybrid vehicles. VW said it hopes that the shift towards electric will help hit new EU targets for CO2 emissions.
A joint venture with Tesla would greatly simplify and de-risk the transition for Volkswagen. Volkswagen could just ramp up with 20 Tesla licensed gigafactories over five years and teach 10 million cars and trucks per year by 2025.
If Tesla was inside 50 million cars and trucks every year at $6,000 per car for the batteries and drives this would be $300 billion per year. If Tesla was inside 50 million cars and trucks per year at $15,000 per car for the skateboard and full self-driving system then this would be $750 billion per year.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Licensing on a large scale of batteries, powertrain and self driving tech assumes the global vehicle market is rapidly transitioning to AV/BEVs and Tesla has the recognized superior tech.
Under these circumstances Tesla would be making huge profits by charging MUCH more for it’s FSD BEVs than currently and still have long waiting lists of buyers (who could make money operating their vehicles in Tesla Network).
Licensing would simply let Tesla scale up production faster while saving some of the legacy automakers from bankruptcy.
Ludus will license the batteries and skateboard for only $4000 to $6000 per car. License them from me not Hyperchange.
No, $40k or more for FSD per vehicle is actually pretty low based on what Tesla projected at their presentation. As Robotaxis in Tesla Network they could earn work 24/7 and could easily earn more than that after all expenses in a year.
I suppose “mom and pop” would need to look for an additional source of income then.
I suppose the big issue is that skateboard makers, if they concentrated on only a few standard types, would allow a secondary industry of coach builders to design/market their own cabins/pods. Think Apple iCar, where you are paying for design esthetic. It disintermediates the skateboard EV builders from the end customer though. We got close enough with ISO cargo containers, and defacto cargo body standards. There are entire industries that take an engine equipped frame from a factory and put their bodywork on it (think RV’s, ambulances, buses, etc).
But do skateboard builders actually want to interact with customers? If they are building a bulk commodity that provides utility style services to society at potentially low margin (subsidized by the government even!), the customer facing aspect of the MaaS transport scheme could be left to others. As far as the factory is concerned, they are simply selling to fleet customers, robotaxi aggregators, car sharing co-ops, and maybe local government transit authorities as a stand-in for MaaS. Skateboards can head to a maintenance facility on it’s own (perhaps in another state or even country!), swap body onto a fresh skateboard, and return to service.
Humans were not adding to the mix during the billion years of cometary bombardment and its not a few ppm of CO2.
Maybe you love the exhaust fumes of ICs? Should go and stay in New Delhi.
The world doesn’t need saving. It went through a billion years of cometary bombardment. A few ppm of CO2 is nothing.
Tell them…we can make 4 billion a year in profit…or 400 billion a year? Sure.
Why not? If it expands the use of electric vehicles. My question would be when more cars are produced where is the power coming from? Will we burn oil to make electricity?
I like the licensing approach, it enables Tesla to scale their mission more quickly than they might otherwise, while removing risk for their investors by aligning the competition that might try to stymie their disruption into being a beneficiary of it.
$40,000 per car for self-driving…shouldn’t that be $4,000?
Tell that to stock holders
I like them licensing the technology. It’s not about how much Tesla makes, it about saving our planet.
Licensing will greatly speed up the switch to EV’s.
That’s exactly what the world needs
I hope they don’t do it. If they license the technology to other manufacturers, they would essentially put them on par with their vehicles and their expansion as a car manufacturer would probably come to an abrupt halt. If they do it, I don’t think we will see Tesla producing millions of cars in a few years..
Apart from the batteries and drive line, what advantages does Tesla have over the competition? And, would it really be more profitable to supply skateboards to millions of cars than to produce millions of cars? This would actually be a move in the opposite direction of their philosophy of vertical integration.
Y’all are obviously not aware of the fact that AMD is currently kicking Intel’s chips across the playground.
Also wasn’t Ford already licensing… VW’s “skateboard”?
And Tesla for the win!!!
Tesla would essentially be in the insurance biz as well – any SD accidents would commonly result in lawsuits directed at them, leaving it to them to prove otherwise. But that’s ok, especially if total accidents drop drastically.
I enjoy this sentence from above: “Hyperchange could license the batteries and the skateboard platforms for $6,000 to 8,000 per car.” I think that would be an excellent move for Hyperchange. 🙂
That last projection, if Tesla was inside 50M vehicles, hardware and FSD for $15k each that’s $750B/year – in licensing fees, pretty much straight earnings. That makes Saudi Aramco look like a mom and pop operation.
Tesla FSD Robotaxi operations of course would still just be under Tesla Network whatever the OEM licensing it, so that would be additional revenue.
If Tesla gets through to accepted Robotaxi status in major markets it will be shockingly hard for anybody else to catch up from behind. They’d have a data advantage that’s hard to overcome. Who wants to use or license a clearly less safe self driving car vs a standard known to be safer and better with 10 billion miles of training data lead?
If Tesla breaks through with FSD (and improved Maxwell cells) it would make sense for VW and others to just license rather than risk trying to compete from behind.
luv me some hyperchange…Really good technical and financial analysis…probably a fanboy but backs it up with details.