Tesla Has 17% of the Global EV Market and Could Maintain or Grow Share Through 2025

Ark Invest has a new bull case that Tesla could maintain or even grow its current 17% global EV market share.

The bear case for Ark Invest for Tesla for the next 5 years is for Tesla to more than double its stock price to $700. Tesla would still have 6% share of global EV sales. Ark Invest forecasts global EV sales at the end of 2024 at 37 million cars per year. This would be about one-third of all new car sales. This would be 2.2 million cars per year.

The previous bull case was for Tesla to have 11.6% share of global EV sales. This would be about 4.3 million cars per year in 2024.

The new bull case is for Tesla to still have 17% of global EV sales. This would be about 6.3 million cars per year in 2024.

Ark Invest feels that Tesla and will continue to grow its technological lead with batteries.
Tesla also has its AI chip for self-driving.

Tesla will also have battery storage and solar roofing sales.

13 thoughts on “Tesla Has 17% of the Global EV Market and Could Maintain or Grow Share Through 2025”

  1. As the fluttering of a butterfly wings causes an hurricane, the stock market is random. Things fall apart rapidly. I don’t want to lose most of my gains because I was too greedy. Better to start taking some off the table. A staged fallback is better than a rout.

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  2. US economy is doing wonderful compared to say Europe.

    The Orange Man, Bad did a good job with deregulation and tax policy helps.

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  3. If EV adoption is driven by economics (e.g. the unsubsidized cost of an EV is less than an ICE) then it is doable because making battery factories is profitable.

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  4. Yield curves are inverted, the downturn is coming, but the big trick is this: it won’t come next year!
    The Spx should rise for about another two months, after that we should have at least a half year long correction, BUT it will only be the final leg of the long correction that started in 2018.
    After that we should have at least a year long big rally, that will match the one between March of 2009 and April of 2010. That will look insane!
    That will close this bull market circle.
    After this we will have a disastrous downturn at least 3-5 years long (it may last much longer).
    This theory is absolutely consistent with the other indexes of the world!
    http://www.imagebam.com/image/ff585d1327498342

    So my expectation for Tesla mirrors this!
    Next year, it should have another leg down to 150-200. That should give us a WONDERFUL opportunity to buy this stock. It should EASILY TRIPLE in the last bullmarket runup! It could top around 6-700.
    http://www.imagebam.com/image/fa670a1327498336

    If it survives the coming economic crisis (with a 50-70 low), it could then go a HUNDRED TIMES HIGER to 5000 maybe. This move could take 10 years or so.

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  5. I think that it’s better to separate the plug in hybrids and the pure electric vehicles. According to [1], we have the following growth rates:

    For china:
    2015-2016: +69%
    2016-2017: +79%
    2017-2018: +68%

    And for Europe:
    2015-2016: +14%
    2016-2017: +44%
    2017-2018: +47%

    For USA:
    2015-2016: +18%
    2016-2017: +27%
    2017-2018: +123%

    So how much growth would you need to get to 37 million vehicles per year at 2024? Well, China, Europe and the USA had a combined (pure) EV market of ~1.2 million. Which in turn would require a CAGR of +98%.. Seems a bit too high, but it may be possible with a small probability…

    https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Automotive%20and%20Assembly/Our%20Insights/Expanding%20electric%20vehicle%20adoption%20despite%20early%20growing%20pains/Expanding-electric-vehicle-adoption-despite-early-growing-pains-final.ashx

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  6. I think that beyond 2022 EVs will be cheaper than IC’s which would hint at an accelerated growth of EV production. But I wonder if the world battery production can scale to match?

    To get to 37 million vehicles per year, you would need (assuming 80 kWh per car) about 3 TWh of batteries per year. At 2018, we were at 150 GWh per year, so you would need about 85% CAG. Doable?

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  7. I disagree as

    1. 2019 is unusual with China (more than half the market) reducing subsidy and tanking;
    2. Most car makers are only coming out with EV models in early 2020;
    3. EV will become so much more attractive financially over the next few years with battery costs dropping;
    4. Charging infra is increasing
    5. Many more Countries are moving to accommodate EV’s;
    6. The young are becoming very environmentally conscious. So very sad that old buggers of my age bracket could not care less.
    7. Autonomous cars will increase EV appeal

    My take is that 37 M in 2024 is too low. At the low end growth I expect
     2,019       2,200,000          
      2,020       3,960,000           
    2,021       7,128,000           
    2,022    12,830,400           
    2,023    23,094,720           
    2,024    41,570,496

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  8. Global plug-in vehicle deliveries reached 1 134 000 units in the 1st half of 2019, 46 % higher than for 2018

    from http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

    So make that 2.2 Million per year for 2019 (naive doubling of the first half).

    Growth at 46% gives us naive extrapolation of
    2020 – 3.2 million
    2021 – 4.7 million
    2022 – 6.8 million
    2023 – 10 million
    2024 – 14.6 million

    So I agree. A straight growth at a ridiculously optimistic 46% still only gets halfway there.

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  9. 37M EV sales a years is not a bull forecast, it’s a non realistic mind game. Anyway, it would be fair with such a rosy scenario to bring the other more bearish scenarios.

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  10. I think Tesla is position to stay atop. But there will be a worldwide economical downturn within a year or two. Because of that Tesla stock price will take an hit. And they may even get into trouble if they are over extended.

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