Stephen McAleese, at Less Wrong, used scaling rules and formulas to try to predict the performance of GPT-4. He underpredicted the capabilities of GPT-4. However, he was not widely wrong. GPT-4 came out earlier than he expected and had better performance than expected. Multi-task Language Understanding on MMLU was better than expected. GPT-4 can work …
The three main ingredients leading to predictable improvements in AI performance are training data, computation, and improved algorithms. In the mid-2010s, some AI researchers noticed that larger AI systems were consistently smarter, and so they theorized that the most important ingredient in AI performance might be the total budget for AI training computation. When this …
Dr Alan D. Thompson is a world expert in artificial intelligence (AI), specializing in the augmentation of human intelligence, and advancing the evolution of ‘integrated AI’. He defines AGI as being able to have artificial intelligence at human level or above for all tasks. AI is already helping to create the chips used for AI. …
Dr Alan D. Thompson is a world expert in artificial intelligence (AI), specializing in the augmentation of human intelligence, and advancing the evolution of ‘integrated AI’. He is predicting Artificial General Intelligence will arrive in about 35 months. Alan provides AI consulting and advisory to intergovernmental organizations including member states of the United Nations, Non-Aligned …
Canada is tracking to pass 40 million people late in 2023 and is following the Statscan high population growth scenario to pass 50 million people by 2040. Canada should have 44 million people by 2030. The US has about 334 million people now. Canada has 11.7% of the US population today. US population projections: 2023 …
Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture, is ranked 47th all time on the public prediction website -Metaculus and is ranked 35th for the past 12 months. Brian has a brier score of 0.088. Lower brier scores are more accurate. If predictions were random results and someone had 50% confidence of 50% results then the brier score would be …
Peter Zeihan was interviewed by Joe Rogan where Zeihan again predicted the collapse of China. This time Zeihan says it will happen within ten years. Zeihan has been predicting China’s meltdown since 2005. He repeats the call for China meltdown and possible breakup or breakdown multiple times. In 2010, he said it would happen within …
In 2023, it will be a big mistake to ignore profits from Tesla energy, new tax credits and full self-driving software. Analysts could safely ignore energy because while it was 10% in revenue it had almost no profits. Similarly, full self driving made a lot of headlines but was only used bought by less than …
Here is a link to my Twitter space on Tesla for 2023. The main presentation and discussion starts 10 minutes after the Twitter space starts. Yes, Tesla and markets are way down but Tesla is setting up for a very strong 2023. There are large boosts to Tesla profits from full self driving sofware, inflation …
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical forecaster who uses simplified analysis and makes broad generalized predictions. He has predicted financial doom for China for over a decade. He does correctly identify things like demographic challenges which in some cases can cause a -1% drag on GDP growth for a country. However, he broadly assumes that no …
IonQ has received over $400 million in funding from Venture capitalists and an IPO. They presented their work at the 2021 QBWare conference. I, Brian Wang, will go going to the 2022 QBWare conference. IonQ indicates that their near term quantum computing systems can reach qubit fidelity of 99.98%. This means they are close to …
