In 2023, it will be a big mistake to ignore profits from Tesla energy, new tax credits and full self-driving software. Analysts could safely ignore energy because while it was 10% in revenue it had almost no profits. Similarly, full self driving made a lot of headlines but was only used bought by less than …
Here is a link to my Twitter space on Tesla for 2023. The main presentation and discussion starts 10 minutes after the Twitter space starts. Yes, Tesla and markets are way down but Tesla is setting up for a very strong 2023. There are large boosts to Tesla profits from full self driving sofware, inflation …
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical forecaster who uses simplified analysis and makes broad generalized predictions. He has predicted financial doom for China for over a decade. He does correctly identify things like demographic challenges which in some cases can cause a -1% drag on GDP growth for a country. However, he broadly assumes that no …
IonQ has received over $400 million in funding from Venture capitalists and an IPO. They presented their work at the 2021 QBWare conference. I, Brian Wang, will go going to the 2022 QBWare conference. IonQ indicates that their near term quantum computing systems can reach qubit fidelity of 99.98%. This means they are close to …
Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical …
Ukrainian forces advanced 50km (30 miles) deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8 and took control of Balakliya city. In the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8. Ukraine has already recaptured 1000 square kilometers of territory. Ukrainian forces will …
In 2006, I publicly predicted that solar energy would be the cheapest form of energy by 2020. Among 150 predictions I made in 2006 on the site nanotech-now were Solar power becomes cheapest form of enery by 2015-2020 Massive solar energy deployments, over one third of the new energy generators by 2015-2025 IRENA’s report, Renewable …
In 2006, I made a list of 152 public future predictions. I made a prediction that there would be 20 million millionaires by 2018-2020. This was triple the number of millionaires in the world in 2004. The 2004 numbers were and what were available and known in 2006. A new study from Capgemini published in …
Ukraine will soon cutoff Russian troops in Kherson on the Northern side of the Dnipro River from resupply. They are destroying bridges and have already rendered certain bridges mostly unusable. This will enable Ukraine’s larger number of troops to outnumber and overwhelm Russian troops without resupply. This retaking of significant territory currently held by Russian …
We know what will happen in the next two years with electric cars because we know what electric car factories and battery factories have already been built. Electric Car Factories take time to build and scale production. Battery factories and battery supplies take time to establish. This is the same as in 1943 in WW2. …
Which Car Companies Goes Bankrupt or Restructures First? They will be losing 50-90% of their legacy auto business from 2024-2028. When and how fast will depend upon their region and types of cars they make. Large trucks and SUVs will take 2-5 years longer to replace. China and Europe and transition about 2-4 years faster …
