Metaculus is a prediction competition site and they have a question on Chinese fertility in 2031. China had a total fertility rate (TFR) of only 1.3 in 2020, well below the replacement level. China’s fertility rate stood at just 1.3 This was even lower than 1.34 in Japan. China’s nominal GDP per capita is only …
What would the rough shape of the world be if the Big Tech companies and Cryptocurrency continue on their current trajectories? For years, people with traditional financial backgrounds would say that Apple, Tesla or other Big Tech would not continue multiplying profitability and revenue. People have been saying this about Tesla, Cryptocurrency and many other …
Canada’ century Initiative calls for a bigger, bolder Canada with over 100 million people by 2100. Former Canadian Prime Minister Mulroney supports the new national policy that would commit to tripling Canada’s population by 2100. By 2026, Century Initiative says Canada should pin the annual immigration target to 1.25 percent of its population per year. …
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee has spent more than three decades at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence research, development, and investment in both the US and China. He is now managing a $3 billion Sinovation Ventures fund. Previously, Dr. Lee was the president of Google China and a senior executive at Microsoft, SGI, and Apple. Co-chair …
The Tesla Economist calculates that Tesla could deliver 292000 cars in Q4 of 2021 and this would be $16.2 billion in automotive revenue. This would be $6 billion more quarterly than the blowout Q2 auto revenue just reported by Tesla. This would mean about $3.1 billion in net income in Q4 versus $1.3 billion in …
Tesla Texas and Tela Berlin factories could start production of Model Y vehicles in completed buildings while completing the rest of the factories. This would enable small pilot production of a few hundred to a few thousand vehicles in Q4 2021. Close observers of the new Tesla factory construction expect the main production ramps to …
Cathie Wood forecasts that as the world shifts to electric cars and trucks this will take oil prices down to $12 per barrel. About 35% of world oil is used for cars and trucks. A shift to electric cars and trucks will remove 35% of oil usage. If this shift is over 20 years then …
Why is there a lot of focus on the Ark Invest report and analysis? Some people who do not follow ARK or Tesla closely think that it is the ebb and flow of hype. They are some random flavor of the month. This is not the case. Ark correctly called Tesla going to $4000 when …
The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP), the United Nations projected that the world’s population would grow from 7.7 billion in 2019 to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100. These figures are based on the “medium variant” projection, which assumes a decline in fertility for …
This is an update on the projection that the US will reach 500,000 cumulative COVID deaths according to the Worldometer tracking. Worldometers reporting about 489,571 deaths on February 11, 2021. John Hopkins reports 471,567 total US COVID deaths as of February 10, 2021, 475k on Feb 11 and 478k as of Feb 12. John Hopkins …
The US currently records 474,915 deaths from COVID and the seven day average or daily deaths is over 3000 per day. This will likely update to about 476,000 deaths by the end of the day Feb 7, 2021. UPDATE – adjusted for variance between IHME and Worldometers reporting of death totals on Jan 29. Feb …
