Zeihan Predicts EV Revolution Fails and High Global Inflation for Five Years

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical forecaster who uses simplified analysis and makes broad generalized predictions. He has predicted financial doom for China for over a decade. He does correctly identify things like demographic challenges which in some cases can cause a -1% drag on GDP growth for a country. However, he broadly assumes that no …

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Accuracy of Nextbigfuture Predictions

Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical …

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Ukraine Could Take Izyum and Kherson this Month

Ukrainian forces advanced 50km (30 miles) deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8 and took control of Balakliya city. In the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8. Ukraine has already recaptured 1000 square kilometers of territory. Ukrainian forces will …

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Ukraine Could Retake Kherson City Up to the Dnipro River

Ukraine will soon cutoff Russian troops in Kherson on the Northern side of the Dnipro River from resupply. They are destroying bridges and have already rendered certain bridges mostly unusable. This will enable Ukraine’s larger number of troops to outnumber and overwhelm Russian troops without resupply. This retaking of significant territory currently held by Russian …

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Which Carmakers go Bankrupt First with the Death of ICE Cars?

Which Car Companies Goes Bankrupt or Restructures First? They will be losing 50-90% of their legacy auto business from 2024-2028. When and how fast will depend upon their region and types of cars they make. Large trucks and SUVs will take 2-5 years longer to replace. China and Europe and transition about 2-4 years faster …

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