Coronavirus Levels Are Vastly Higher

John Hopkins models infection levels are ten times higher than official numbers. Many minor cases are not tracked. They think 58000 people were infected by the end of January and it tripled over the prior ten days.

The official infections accelerated from about a thousand then to over forty thousand now.

This would ballpark the current infected cases at 150000-600000 now instead of the 40,000 reported.

54 thoughts on “Coronavirus Levels Are Vastly Higher”

  1. Hrm, the alleged leaked numbers for infected that leaked for the third time on the Tencent virus outbreak monitoring webpage are in the right range…

    I think it was on January 26, and the leaked numbers were allegedly 154,023 confirmed, 79,808 suspected, 269 recovered, and 24,589 dead…

  2. Whether this is related to the head of the Hubei Health Commission getting fired yesterday is left as an exercise for the reader.

    Actually quite a bit of the analysis is being left as an exercise for the reader. Nobody in the MSM is willing to gainsay the official Chinese numbers.

  3. Deaths and total cases suddenly shot up today. China claims the dramatic increase in new cases (15K vs 2K previous day) was because they’ve now included “clinically diagnosed” cases. (I guess ‘they’ve got the symptoms’ versus ‘we checked and they’ve got the virus’?)

    But oddly, the number of new deaths also surged from around 100 to 254. That sounds like they weren’t counting some deaths previously, maybe because they weren’t confirmed to be due to novel coronavirus?

    So did the 254 deaths include previously unreported deaths, or just new deaths that they weren’t counting under the old method? I guess tomorrow’s numbers will give some indication.

  4. That’s what it looks like, indeed, but if the infection arrives to India, Pakistan, Africa, … or other regions with poor health systems, then the problem will become colossal.

  5. Well, considering that they don’t have enough test kits then it shouldn’t be surprising.

    More than total figures (that we will hardly ever know), the important information is to detect when the quarantine measures starts having an effect and the contagions recede.

  6. In the time it took you to type out that question you could just google “Chinese urban sulphur dioxide plume” and get 586 000 results.

    You will note that most of the less hysterical stories and pages point out that sulphur dioxide could be produced by many different things. And I haven’t looked deeply enough to see if any of them have the numbers from previous months, without which no comparison can be made.

  7. How can the graph of “daily deaths” show linear increase, when daily new cases and daily recoveries both exhibited exponential increase up until about 1 week ago?

  8. Though there is apparently a fair amount of data showing that transmission is negatively correlated with both humidity and temperature, both of which destroy the free floating virii in the air.

    So central and south America, and I guess South Asia, South East Asia, Africa and Australasia are all a lot safer than they appear.

    North Korea could be a catastrophe.

  9. Its kinda an eldery killer i think, i mean kids seam to survive it, but those who are not that strong are at risk. And the workforce is an excelent spreader of viruses.
    And i doubt airplanes themselves are quarantained so its global and every where now, under the hood of workers and students, those who have lots of contacts by job.

  10. J. Hopkin’s own website is showing (for the first time) the ‘recovered’ figure now breaking past the 10% point of total confirmed cases. If the confirmed cases is accurate, it’s slowing down. If the confirmed cases is bogus, we’re still in trouble.

  11. And (unnamed) epidemiologist friend of my wife’s thinks the number of infected is closer to 1,000,000.  Official numbers are heading north of 40,000 now. As I learned once, and then repeatedly over the last 50 years, when dealing with sociologically evolving things, it is best to take the geometric mean between the “official” problem scale, and the “fearsome expert”.  

    200,000 = √( 1,000,000 × 40,000 )

    That then becomes the likely level of infection cases at the present. What we REALLY have to watch for is this jumping significantly to Africa and Centra/South America. … where proactive and analytic medical institutions are all but non-existent.  

    ⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

  12. You’re confusing communism with authoritarianism. Despotism/socialism/communism aren’t the same thing. But you knew that, didn’t you.

  13. They had a decline of new cases. That is a very good sign. I hope we are at the top of the hill and now moving down on our way to zero.
    Though sometimes these things can be more jagged.

  14. India is a mix of widespread poverty and poor infrastructure with nearly western-level development in limited areas. They do have the means to isolate a few individual cases as they come into the country, which I think is what they’ve done with the 3 reported cases. As long as they do that quarantine properly and don’t miss any asymptomatic cases that carry the virus into the general population, they’ll be fine. But if it reaches the general population, they’re screwed.

  15. The good news is the percent of recoveries is rising. It’s approaching 10% now, was closer to 6% a couple days ago. It should rise more as experimental treatments are proven effective. So we may be approaching the end in another month or two. That the death rate is stable is also good news, of course.

  16. As Combinatorics wrote, this is China’s Chernobyl x1,000. My prediction is the virus will end the current role of the Communist Party. A virus like this is incompatible with their governance process.

    • extreme loss of face both at home and to outside world
    • the social contract between CPC and people is now fully broken
    • Many, many more Chinese will die. The virus is now confirmed airborne transmitted. The people dying are urbanites, not poor rurals (who the CPC don’t care about), ie pillars of the China Miracle. Air pollution and a generally poor health care system that is mainly geared for traditional medicine can’t cope with this onslaught.
    • On one hand the CPC is on a China lock down, on the other they are telling people to go back to work (to make Iphones and produce rebars that no one is buying). Means they really don’t care about the citizens, bloody obvious to everyone.
    • Notice the CPC hasn’t asked anyone for help. Another sign of the complete disconnect that will unravel the system.
    • Internationally, gives HK all the excuses to disconnect from Mainland and form a narrative the virus is the fault of the bad guys CPC.
    • Internationally, gives everyone an excuse to disconnect from China, whose brand now = death. Also provides ample room to start narratives, like the virus came from the bioweapons lab in Wuhan.

    Game over, China.

  17. 3 cases in India, one Indian in UAE. None reported in Africa as of yesterday. The main issue with these places is that it is almost entirely possible there are infected, but they aren’t seeking treatment and/or not being identified. Millions have “slight fevers” and could be deadly carriers. Only time till tell.

  18. Is China misleading the the world about a middle ages proportions pandemic brewing in its midst? What will be the consequences of that? How spread is the corona virus in other third world countries that have a strong contact with China, such as the Phillipines, Thailand, Indonesia and Africa?
    The truth is that we don’t know.

  19. “The problem is it also travels through the eyes now….joy.”

    This explains Party leadership sticking their heads in the sand when the virus was first spreading.

  20. I think China is missing a zero on their numbers but I tend to agree that most of the world apart from China will deal with this. I feel horrible for HK because they won’t close their border with the mainland (out of solidarity with them). Hopefully this disease doesn’t spread to Africa.

    In the meantime the central bank(s) will flood the market with money to stabilize things…. and I don’t blame them.

  21. That’s the best you can come up with?

    I mean China would have paid you one extra facemask if you had gone with

    “The US locks people up all the time in prisons, China just locks them up for their own good!”

  22. The overlooked elephant is India and Africa. Both of which have very large populations and virtually non existent health care. Note there are no “recorded” outbreaks in Africa where China is doing a lot of business. IMO that is a result of the active virus not being detected. The death rate for infections is about 2.2% with intensive medical facilities and treatment. The death rate for India and Africa will be much higher as a result. India could have a few 100,000 could be infected before they are even aware of how extensive the infection is. Quarantine is not a possibility at that point. The same for Africa. Currently there are no travel restrictions for those areas and that will be the door to a full pandemic.

  23. Hey PP why don’t you name just one recognized scientific organization in the world that agrees with your GW denier BS. Should be easy for someone who miraculously get four recommendations in three hours.

  24. Is this really a huge problem, or is it going to be rapidly STOMPED on by all the nations’ versions of the CDC?  I get the impression that tho’ the number of reported cases continues to rise, the acceleration has all but subsided. The ‘slope’ isn’t pretty, but with the whole-world having rather high person-to-person viral transmission ‘awareness-and-fear’, I doubt its ‘naïve transmission’ is anywhere near as high as it was only 3 weeks ago. 

    So, black swan or not, I think it is going to evolve more like SARS than a brand-new Smallpox like vector.  

    At least that’s my belief.

    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

  25. If China ever claims to have extraterrestrial technology, I’m going to go find the nearest bed and cry myself sleep in it, because I know they’ll be lying. T_T

  26. It would be preferable if the mortality was not 14 – 20 percent. There is a strong possibility that survivors antibodies are only of transient protection. The viral Rna may mutate fast enough, such that one may later encounter a sufficiently different version and possess no effective immunity.

    A large quantity of sulphur dioxide is visible in satellite observations of more than one city hosting an outbreak. Some have attributed this connection to crematoria operations. If the surmise is correct, that suggests based on known human remain’s sulphur content, possibly thousands processed per day, based on calculations for the Wuhan effluence.

  27. We will know 20 years from now after the book and movie come out….you know…..the 80% of us that are left.

  28. I won’t worry about the apocalypse until my drive to work becomes easier. I hope it’s a zombie apocalypse. I need to vent.

  29. Is the US lying about the current infection rates? Is it lying about number of deaths due to ANY disease? Put up or shut up.

  30. The communists are lying about the numbers!! They value “social order” over the lives of citizens. People go to jail if they promote the truth over there. When will people learn that despotism/socialism/communism is based on lies and maintaining power?

  31. If they think the number of infections are that higher, how many deaths do they think haven’t been reported? Because, that’s a drastic increase.

  32. I think they have been reasonably transparent after the blow back from the initial screw-ups. But, of course, there would have to be a lot of people who have this and don’t know it yet. The % of deaths relative to number of cases has stayed very consistent. Either that would be by design…if you are into conspiracies, or they are on a percentage bases just as in-error as they have been all along. We are at best halfway done given the trajectory. If they really can stop it in the rest of China and the other countries, that would be a fantastic accomplishment. That is where to really put in the heavy effort. The city is immense, but if the spread is limited to that city, it should save a lot of lives.
    Also, of course, it would be great if they find effective interventions…and that could change that natural trajectory.
    If this gets a foothold in Africa, it is going to be hard to stop it from spreading globally.

  33. People don’t usually close factories and quarantine cities for the flu. The Chinese are more afraid of this virus than they are of tanking their own economy.

  34. Think about it this way. When china said it had so many people who had died from it the individual provences and area’s where all reporting No deaths.

    Everything they have been saying is pretty much worthless.

    Average incubation time is 3 days a small amount its up to 24. Of course the 3 days can expose 4 people on average…..The problem is it also travels through the eyes now….joy.

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